Free NBA Pick: Spurs’ Defense Could Falter Friday In Houston, Lots Of Points Expected

Friday, March 22, 2019 5:36 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 22, 2019 5:36 PM UTC

Even though the entire country is caught up in March Madness, there is still money to be made on some of these NBA games. The battle of Texas is a key example, as both teams are still in big fights for playoff seeding.

Jordan’s NBA Picks: 41-24

San Antonio (42-30 SU & 40-31 ATS) at Houston (45-27 SU & 33-37 ATS)

Friday, 8:00 PM EST, NBATV

Free NBA Pick: OVER

Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Divisional Defense Not Great

The Spurs have been one of the more impressive teams in the league over the last few weeks and if they had not lost to the Heat a few nights ago, the hype might be even bigger. They have rattled off wins against the Thunder, Nuggets, Bucks, Warriors, and Blazers since the calendar turned to March.
Alas, most of those wins came at home. Now the Spurs are on the road in Houston where it might be harder to play top tier defense we have come to expect from most of Gregg Popovich’s team.

The issue is just that for the Spurs, especially when you isolated their road games in their division. San Antonio has played seven road games within their division this season and they are giving up nearly 114 points per 100 possessions in those seven games.

These two haven’t played since December, but the Spurs gave up 108 points to the Rockets in that last road game and Houston could be in for more tonight.

The Rockets have also turned a corner this season defensively, but for whatever reason it has not been as good within the Southwest division. Houston is giving up 110.7 points per 100 possessions against teams in their division this season and at home they are allowing 113.2 point per 100 possessions against teams in the Southwest.

The Sharp Pick

If you add the divisional defensive issues to the fact that the Spurs have been great at cashing the over on the road lately, you have a nice recipe for a play on this game. The Spurs have cashed the over in seven of their last 10 road games and with a total of just 220 points, there is serious value in this line.

We could see the Spurs’ defense buckle down in this one, but we could also see an offensive explosion from both teams. Houston has been on an under cashing streak of their own lately, but tonight that could change. They are still 19-15-2 cashing the over when they play at home and they are 4-2-1 cashing the over at home against divisional opponents.

The Spurs have been playing great defense lately, which is a bit of a concern, but the fact that this game is on the road makes for a great opportunity to take advantage of a price dip sue to that solid defense.

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#HighlyQuestionable is absolutely the worst show on TV and this take on the Spurs is just awful. What do you think? Spurs fans? pic.twitter.com/dmffvMcmcd

— Joe Garcia (@twoshotspodcast) March 20, 2019
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Final Score Prediction: Spurs 110 – Rockets 116
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