Jordan’s NBA Picks: 66-45, Playoffs 12-7
San Antonio (50-36 SU & 45-39 ATS) at Denver 56-30 SU & 44-42 ATS)
Tuesday, 9:30 PM EST, NBATV
Free NBA Pick: TEASER w/ Spurs and UNDER
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
The problem with the NBA Playoffs, at least in the first round, is the sportsbooks get a lot smarter as the series go on further. Bettors can obviously learn a lot too as a series progresses, but not too many bettors have the computing and algorithmic power to match what the book has.
That means some of these games are going to have some sharp odds and Game 5 of this series is a perfect example. I can almost guarantee that the books will see more action on the elimination games than they will on this one.
It’s simply because it’s hard to predict, but I also think that the Spurs are slightly undervalued here. It may be by only a half point, but if we can get on the right side of both the total and spread, a teaser might be the way to bet this game.
With this being in Denver, the Nuggets defense will certainly step up once again. The Nuggets are holding the Spurs to 107.9 points per 100 possessions at home in this series, so I don’t expect San Antonio to drop 115 points in this one.
This game should be a classic defensive battle between two teams with above average defenses. Pair that with the Spurs in a teaser and I think we have our bet.
The Sharper Pick
It’s rare that I pick a teaser but for this game in particular, it seems right. Gregg Popovich is not going to let the Spurs get beat by double figures and if a guy like Derrick White goes off again, the Spurs may win this one outright as well.
So, without getting into too many details on the types of teasers and differentiating between ties losing, winning, or pushing, a four point teaser is probably the way I’ll go in this one. If I can get the total up to 215 and the Spurs moved up to +9 ½, I’m taking that bet.
Final Score Prediction: Spurs 103 – Nuggets 108