Jordan’s NBA Picks: 54-36
Indiana (47-34 SU & 39-41 ATS) at Atlanta (29-52 SU & 42-39 ATS)
Wednesday, 8:00 PM EST
Free NBA Pick: Hawks ATS
Recommended Sportsbook: Intertops
The Hawks may be tanking, but they have no lower than can descend to in the tank battle of 2018-19. With that in mind, should we be backing the Hawks with the Pacers resting pretty much everyone of note on Wednesday?
Pacers Resting, Hawks Playing Better
Even if both of these teams were set to field their best starting lineups and the NBA Odds reflected that, I’m still on the Hawks. Now that half the Pacers have been ruled out, the Hawks are an even better play, despite now being slight favorites at home.
The Pacers have ruled out Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thad Young, and Domantas Sabonis for Wednesday’s game, leaving them with some solid guard depth and a very thin frontcourt heading into Atlanta.
That could be a problem going up against John Collins and Alex Len. Collins is a walking double-double and without Turner to slow him down, he could easily be at 20 points by the half of this one. Len too could be in for a good game without anyone to guard him other than Kyle O’Quinn.
If the Hawks are winning the battle down low, they will at the very least be able to cancel out the Pacers’ advantages in the backcourt. No one on Indiana is fast enough to stay in front of Trae Young. Even Darren Collison isn’t up for the challenge and without Wes Matthews as well, Young could drop 30 points in his final rookie game.
Considering the Hawks personnel advantages and their lack of a need to lose any more games, I see them going full bore in their final game and putting a beat down on the resting Pacers.
The Sharp Pick
This NBA Pick gets even better when you consider how well Young and the Hawks have been playing. The Hawks are 5-4 SU over their last nine games and during that stretch they have posted an offensive rating of 110.3, which ranks 17th in the league during that stretch.
While their defense hasn’t been great during that stretch, they could hold Indiana to less than 90 points tonight with the squad the Pacers are fielding. If that’s the case and they go all out for their final game, the value you’re getting on this game is fantastic right now.
Since Victor Oladipo went down, the Pacers’ road offense has been atrocious, even with the rest of their team healthy. Indiana owns a 103.6 offensive rating on the road, which ranks 29th among all teams since the end of January.
Imagine the Pacers’ offense now without four of their top five scorers and still no Oladipo tonight. It could see the Hawks winning this one by double figures.
Final Score Prediction: Pacers 105 – Hawks 115