Suns Tired Defense Will Lead To Value In Spread And Total

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Suns Tired Defense Will Lead To Value In Spread And Total

Jordan’s NBA Picks: 20-11

Phoenix (8-24 SU & 13 -19 ATS) at Brooklyn (15-19 SU & 18-16 ATS)

Sunday, 6:00 PM EST

Free NBA Pick: Nets ATS and OVER

Best Line Offered: BetOnline

Not only are the Nets a good ATS bet in this game, but the over is a nice way to hedge against the recent success of the Suns coming back to bite us. These two teams are clicking on offense more in the latter half of December than most teams in the league.

Recent Successes

As of writing this, the game between the Suns and Wizards has not happened yet, but that game is still very winnable for the Suns, even with the Wizards getting healthier. That being said, even excluding that game, the Suns have been playing better as we get deeper into December.

Since December 8, the Suns have actually been pretty respectable on offense, posting an average of 108 points per 100 possessions. Combine that with their defense playing even better and only allowing 106 points per 100 possessions, and you might even be able to get some optimism.

However, if the Suns’ recent small stretch is gaining optimism, the Nets’ run over the last three weeks is borderline amazing.

Since that same date, the Nets are posting an average of 117.9 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third best in the league durinf that stretch. They are starting to give up some more points too, but with the Suns coming off a game on Saturday, I could see the Nets dropping 120 points in this matchup.

After losing a strong winning streak like the Nets did on Friday to the Pacers, and with a tired and frankly pretty bad opponent coming into town, there is little doubt in my mind that the Nets win this one ATS.

The Sharp Pick

The Suns are only 1-3 ATS this season playing on the second half of a back-to-back and at some point this long road trip is going to catch up with them. Phoenix has cashed the over in two of their four games playing on no rest this season and even though they have not been that successful cashing this over in 2018, the Nets should help that.

Brooklyn is 9-5 cashing the over against the Western Conference this season, they’re 11-7 cashing the over at home, and 5-3 cashing the over at home against a Western Conference team.

Assuming the Nets get the jump on Phoenix ATS, I still expect the pace and lack of defense of this game will lead to the over being a fine play as well. Despite how well they have played at home, Brooklyn still owns the league’s second-worst home defense, allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions at the Barclays Center. With the Suns giving up more than that on the road, look for this one to provide value on the spread and total.

Final Score Prediction: Suns 111 – Nets 125