Dallas Is Tired, Tanking, And Not The Same Team That’s Beaten Houston Twice

Sunday, February 10, 2019 3:56 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 10, 2019 3:56 PM UTC

The Mavs may be tanking their way into 2019-20 in order to try and keep their 2019 1st Round Pick, but will they be able to keep it close against Houston, who probably wants to rebound after a tough Saturday loss to the Thunder?

Jordan’s NBA Picks: 36-18

Dallas (25-29 SU & 34-20 ATS) vs Houston (32-23 SU & 25-29-1 ATS)Monday, 8:00 PM, NBATVFree NBA Pick: Rockets ATSBest Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569651, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,169,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Dallas may have the best ATS record in the league, but that could very well change over the final 25 games of the season. Dallas shipped their entire team out of town at the deadline and while the fans should be very excited about the future, the present is about to take a big dip downward.

Dallas Wants To Keep Their Pick

Due to the draft night trade that swapped Trae Young for Luka Doncic, the Mavs owe the Hawks a 1st round pick. With a healthy Kristaps Porzingis to go with Doncic and a ton of cap space this summer, the Mavs have a lot of ways they could become a playoff team in 2019-20.

However, it was evident that was not happening this season and now the Mavs are about to unleash an all-out tanking battle. If Dallas can land one of the top five picks in the draft, they will be able to keep their 2019 pick from conveying to the Hawks. This is almost certainly their last chance at keeping it before they start contending again, so they want no part of winning games.

The Rockets probably know this too, so coming off a loss, I don’t think they will take the tanking Mavs lightly. Even though Dallas is coming off a game on Sunday and they could end up sitting down their prized rookie.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Welcome to the NBA Tank Rankings: Which teams have the best chance at hitting the lottery and winning a chance to draft Zion Williamson? https://t.co/GBotk7trZp

— For The Win (@ForTheWin) February 8, 2019
\n\n"}[/]

Dallas’ Back-To-Back

I’m writing this only a few hours before tip-off on the Mavs’ Sunday afternoon showdown against the Blazers. Seeing as it’s a home game, since Doncic is (seemingly) healthy enough to play, I think he’ll suit up for this home game.

However, the eventual Rookie of the Year has been playing banged up lately. He had to have x-rays on his hand recently, which came out negative. He also has been listed as questionable a lot more recently due to a thigh contusion.

The rookie is far from healthy and as happens with a lot of rookies entering their first NBA season, the length and sheer magnitude of the season can start to take its’ toll on players who are not used to the grind of a full NBA season.

Like I said, I think Doncic plays Sunday afternoon, but playing Monday is no guarantee. ON the road and coming off a game the day before is one thing, but when you consider how badly the Mavs need to lose games, I think there is a strong chance they sit Doncic on Monday night, despite the game being on TV. That will make the Rockets a great value ATS.

The Sharp Pick

Dallas has almost no shot at getting one of the top three Draft Lottery odds of 14%, but they have an outside shot at coming in with the fifth worst record. They are among a group of seven teams between 30-and-39 losses and one of those teams is more than likely going to finish with the fifth-worst record.

With all this in mind, the Rockets are the play ATS, especially if Dallas sits down Doncic on the second night of a back-to-back. I could see Houston running away with this one. Not only will they want to bounce back from a loss, but they also lost their first two games against Dallas this season.

That was before Dallas shipped out four of their five starters though. With a completely new team of bench players who are now starters, Dallas is going to get their asses kicked.

Final Score Prediction: Mavericks 103 – Rockets 121

comment here