Dallas Is Fade-Worthy Coming Off Big Win Over Golden State

Tuesday, March 26, 2019 4:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 26, 2019 4:40 PM UTC

The Kings’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread after their loss to the Lakers two nights ago. Their fate rests in the hope that they can win out and get some help from other teams down the stretch. However, will that motivate them to bounce back with a win on Tuesday?

Jordan’s NBA Picks: 41-28

Sacramento (36-37 SU & 42-30 ATS) at Dallas (29-44 SU & 41-31 ATS)

Tuesday, 8:30 PM EST
Free NBA Pick: Kings 1H and Full Game ML
Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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The Dallas Mavericks are riding high after their huge upset win over the Warriors on the road. However, are the sportsbooks banking on them being overvalued on Tuesday with the Kings coming to town?

Dallas With The Juice

When completely healthy there are very few situations where Dallas should be favored over the Kings. Even at home and coming off a huge win isn’t enough for the Mavs to be better in any world than the Kings.

With Sacramento still staring at slim playoff odds, they are going to do whatever it takes from here on out to win games until they are eliminated from playoff contention.

With that in mind and coming off a loss that they should have won, the Kings are a great bounce back play here. They have had time to rest and recover from that game, while the Mavs have been riding high over a two-day break from their big win. That will hurt the Mavs more than it will the Kings.

There is also the elephant in the room of Luka Doncic being labeled questionable. The Mavs have kind of given the rookie superstar the Tom Brady treatment this season when it comes to putting him on the injury report and him eventually playing anyway. However, this late in the season and even at home, it’s a small concern for anyone fading the Kings tonight.

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Lowe: De'Aaron Fox is speeding up the Kings' timeline https://t.co/dSXbnD62KC

— ESPN 690 (@ESPN690Jax) 26 de março de 2019

The Sharp Pick

Now that we have all the narrative crap out of the way we can focus on the fact that even though they manned up and got a win over the Warriors, the Mavs have been downright awful since the All Star Break.

This is obviously by design after they traded four of their starters away and have been tanking since, but the signs are there in some of their metrics. Dallas is giving up 115.1 points per 100 possessions over their last 16 games, which ranks 27th in the league during that time span.

They’re also only averaging 108.6 points per 100 possessions during that same period, which ranks 23rd in the league.

The Kings’ offense hasn’t been much better than that over that same period, but their defense has been extensively better. The Kings should use this game to push the pace early and establish their tempo as the road team.

If they can do that, they should catch the Mavs with a bit of a hangover from their big win three days ago. I think that leads to both a win in the full game, but a lead at halftime as well.

Final Score Prediction: Kings 114 – Mavericks 112

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