Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Free NBA Pick: Bucks ATS
Best Line Offered: BetOnline
Bucks’ Five-Out Transformation
The Bucks’ fervent adoption of the 3-point shot is the reason for the team’s unexpected success, currently the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference with a 27-11 SU record. Only the Houston Rockets attempt more treys per night in the NBA, Milwaukee firing up 39.2 per game. The franchise averaged just 24.7 last year.
First-year head coach Mike Budenholzer instituted a new five-out system offensively, allowing for the team’s thriving transformation. In the scheme, each player is positioned around the arc in half-court sets, allowing MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo the space he needs to attack the rim if an open look from deep is unavailable. Stopping the “Greek Freak’ in isolation is nearly impossible. The Bucks lead the league in scoring with 117.7 points per game, and Antetokounmpo ranks first in 2-point field goals (342).
The new offense is particularly flourishing at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee posting 120.8 points per game in the building. The betting market can’t catch up. The “over’ is 16-6 (72.7 percent) with the Bucks surpassing their projected team total in 14 of the 22 contests. They’ve also covered the spread in two-thirds of matchups in the building with a 14-7-1 ATS record.
Jazz Playing Same Tune
The Jazz are playing their regular tune nearly halfway through the 2018-19 season, dominating on defense with rim-protector center Rudy Gobert filling the paint. Utah ranks in the top 10 in nearly every major statistical category, including sixth in scoring defense (105.7 points per game), first in opponent assists (20.9) and fifth in opponent 3-pointers (9.9). Gobert is tied for third in the league with a 4.9 defensive box plus/minus.
Utah is held back by an inconsistent offense, improving to a level .500 record (20-20- SU) with a 110-105 road win at Detroit on Saturday night. The Jazz, slow and deliberate, generate few looks at the rim, taking just 84.7 shots per game (29th). The attack has struggled to keep up with high-scoring teams such as the Bucks in the past. Under head coach Quin Snyder, Utah is 14-30 SU (31.8 percent) and 18-26-ATS (40.9 percent) all-time against teams posting 112.0 points per game or more entering a matchup. When catching more than 2 points on the NBA odds board in this situation, the records dip to 4-24 SU (14.3 percent) and 9-19 ATS (32.1 percent) overall. Oddsmakers opened the Bucks at 6-point favorites for Monday’s clash.
Milwaukee has posted 110 points or more in all but three contests at home this season. No one has found the formula to slow the offense. The Jazz will not figure it out, either. Snyder is 7-35 SU (16.7 percent) and 8-29 ATS (22.0 percent) all-time on the road when allowing as many points in a game. We have it 121-107 for Milwaukee. Lay the points for your best bet.