Heat Should Push The Pace, Making An Over Bet Valuable

Saturday, November 17, 2018 9:48 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 17, 2018 9:48 PM UTC

While the Heat are coming off a loss on Friday to the Pacers, the Lakers will be playing in Miami on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Saturday in Orlando. While the trip is short, it could impact the veteran Lakers squad now that the season is over a month long.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jordan’s NBA Picks: 5-7</em></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/los-angeles-lakers-vs-miami-heat-3570025/odds/"><strong>Lakers (8-6 SU &amp; 5-9 ATS) vs. Miami (6-9 SU &amp; 6-9 ATS)</strong></a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, 6:00 PM EST</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: OVER</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline">at BetOnline</a></strong></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3570025, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,169,139,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Playing either leg of the South Florida trip is tough for West Coast teams, so this back-to-back against the Magic and Heat is not an easy one. Can the Lakers bounce back easily after playing on Saturday, or will the Heat bounce back from their slump?</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Lakers As Dogs, Heat Hotter at Home</strong></h2><p>Even though the Lakers have opened up as slight underdogs, they have been successful in cashing the over for bettors when they are in this position. The Lakers are 2-1-1 cashing the over as dogs this year, and that plays right into an over play for us on this early-evening game.</p><p>The Heat are 5-2 cashing the over this season as home favorites, and even though the Lakers have cashed the over just once in their last seven games, their scoring should improve as the season goes on, and their defense should be worse playing on no rest.</p><p>The Lakers playing on no rest isn’t the only factor leading me to bet the over in this one. As indicated by their home record cashing the over, the Heat have been much better on offense at home than they have on the road.</p><p>Miami is averaging 107.9 points per 100 possessions at home this season, and their pace quickens to over 101 possessions per 48 minutes.</p><p>They could look to try and run more playing a tired opponent. If Miami wants to push the pace, the over could provide a ton of value at the opening odds. The Lakers’ transition defense is still not great, and even though the Heat will likely still be without Dwyane Wade as he celebrates the birth of his newest child, the Heat have plenty of wing and guard depth to keep the Lakers’ defense on their heels.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>The Sharp Pick</strong></h2><p>Overall Miami has been great at cashing the over this season, and a lot of it has to do with the sportsbooks undervaluing their quickened pace and their offense in general. Hassan Whiteside is playing like a man possessed this season, and his consistency has done wonders for this offense.</p><p>Josh Richardson is also on pace for a career year in the scoring column. Both of these guys are taking pressure off Goran Dragic, who should also be able to have a big game against LA.</p><p>Even down the bench, the Heat have a ton of players who can fill up the cup quickly. That depth and ability to play fast is going to break down a tired Lakers defense on Sunday. The Miami offense has definitely looked out of sync at times, but they also have some undeinable upside.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Pacers defense really making Heat work its offense late in the shot clock. Miami looks out of rhythm right now.&lt;/p&gt;— Anthony Chiang (@Anthony_Chiang) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Anthony_Chiang/status/1063592626966929410?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 17, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>The early start time does concern me some, but only for those who are bold enough to bet on the Lakers. In my eyes, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" title="click here for best value NBA picks">the best value</a> is this game becoming a track meet and finishing 119-118 in the end.</p>
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