Free NBA Pick: Grab The Points With Road Underdog Heat vs. Raptors

Charles Stark

Sunday, May 15, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 15, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

We come to the final game in what has been an entertaining series between the Heat and Raptors. I backed Miami for most of the series but is it time to take the Raptors as NBA Picks?

The NBA odds have come out making Miami a +4.5 underdog like at Bookmaker -110. For my NBA pick I'm going to back the team I have been backing the whole series and take Miami to cover the number. Although I believe Toronto has every chance to win this game I highly anticipate this game to go down to the wire which puts value on grabbing the points.

Miami Heat
In game six Miami shot 47.6% from the floor and 35% from distance with just seven turnovers going with a smaller lineup for most of the night. The going a bit smaller is probably not something Miami thought they were going to have to do in this series but with Hassan Whiteside out it opened up this kind of opportunity and they made it work. They shot the ball well most of the night and I liked their ball movement being able to get up 84 attempts along with 15 assists.

They also were able to get up 20 shots from beyond the arc which is something I think they're going to have to do again in order to stay within the number or pull off the upset for game seven. When we look at the statistics on both sides for game six it looks like this game has all the makings of going down to the final shot which, again, in my opinion puts value on grabbing the points. The Raptors and the Heat were even in total rebounds 51-51, almost even in points in the paint with Toronto getting the slight advantage 46-44, and even in fouls at 18 apiece.

This has all the makings of a fantastic final game of the series which will go down to the wire and has been hard-fought especially on the defensive end.


Toronto Raptors
In game six Toronto shot 41.5% from the field in just 25% from distance along with 10 turnovers. On a closer look at the game six it was only the second quarter in which they allowed Miami to get out in front a bit too much. All the other quarters this game was tightly contested. Kyle Lowry went for 36 points but it seems like Toronto took a page out of Miami's offense of playbook and not in a good way.

Toronto only had 10 assists in that game six which can partly be attributed to good defensive pressure by Miami but that was the lowest total they have had since there game one loss in which they had just nine. For the Raptors to win this game other players not named Lowry or DeRozan are going to have to step up because combined outside of those two guys they only had 32 points.

I expect for them to make some good adjustments tonight to counter what Miami was forced to do in game six, but I believe they are facing some tough matchup without Valenciunas. Look for Toronto to play their own version of small ball and for this game to have some good tempo but in the end if Toronto does win this game it will be on a final shot type scenario.

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Free NBA Pick:  Heat +4½ -105
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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