Jordan’s NBA Picks: 64-43 (Playoffs: 10-5)
Golden State (59-26 SU & 37-47 ATS) at LA Clippers (49-36 SU & 46-38 ATS)
Sunday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC
Free NBA Pick: UNDER
Best Line Offered: Heritage
Is it possible for the Clippers to bounce back and somehow slow down this red-hot Warriors offense? They will need to play better defense, but the home game and early afternoon start may be their best friend against a team like the Dubs.
Early-Afternoon Start Could Help Clippers’ Defense
The Clippers have had little answers for the Warriors’ offense in this series. Their lone win so far in Game 2 was reliant on Lou Williams being amazing and simply out-dueling the Dubs on offense.
It will have to be more of the same in Game 4 as the Clippers try to avoid heading back upstate with a 1-3 deficit. That makes this one kind of a must-win for both clubs. The Clippers need to avoid going down by two games, while the Warriors really need to avoid lengthening this series more than it has.
There is also the little nugget of this game being an early start time out West. Those can have some interesting effects on NBA teams. These guys are so conditioned play at night that a playoff game that starts at 12:30 PM local time could lead to some value in these NBA Odds.
On the opening weekend of the playoffs, all five of the games that started at 5:00 PM local time or earlier went under the total and that could be the case here in Game 4.
We’ve seen such high scoring from both clubs that it could take a downgrade here in Game 4.
The Sharp Pick
Not only were those afternoon/early evening Game 1’s on opening weekend lower scoring, their first halves were really high scoring, followed by second halves that were the exact opposite.
I see that happening in Game 4, so that’s why I’m recommending the under. I’m interested to see what the second half lines are in some of these games, because the under could be valuable there as well. However, at 235 ½ and growing, the total represents some nice value if the Clippers could actually hold the Warriors to 120 points or less.
Final Score Prediction: Warriors 120 – Clippers 111