Jordan’s NBA Picks: 78-59-1, Playoffs 24-21-1
Portland (61-34 SU & 51-44 ATS) at Golden State (66-29 SU & 41-53 ATS)
Wednesday, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN
Free NBA Pick: Warriors 1H ATS
Recommended Sportsbook: Bookmaker
The Warriors showed out in Game 1 with Stephen Curry putting on a show from beyond the arc. However, what happens if Curry or Klay Thompson can’t recreate those efforts and one of the Blazers’ guards gets hot?
We saw similar lines open for Game 2 as there were for Game 1, and the movement we’ve seen happen so far for Game 2 is basically the same. Money has come in to move the Blazers from 8 to 7 point underdogs.
It’s no doubt that Game 1 was a statement from the Warriors. They are at way less than full strength and they still put a beatdown on the Blazers. It likely won’t happen that way again, but it’s a telling statement from the two-time defending champs. We’re here, no matter how sharp you think the Blazers are.
We lost our play on Portland ATS two nights ago, but I’m likely not alone in thinking the Blazers could cover in this one.
Curry is fantastic, but I doubt he hits nine three-pointers again. If he hits half that amount and the game plays out the same as Game 1, the Blazers will cover.
That being said, I think the Blazers have room for optimism beyond Curry potentially cooling off. Portland shot only 36 percent from the floor and turned the ball over 21 times. You could argue that even if Curry has another 30-point game, if the Blazers’ stars shoot better and they turn the ball over less, they could still cover the spread here.
The Sharp Pick
I may be a fool, but I think I’m going back to the well with the Blazers in this one. However, while I’ll still probably have some action on Portland to cover the full game line, the first half spread seems like a better bet right now for those of you wanting a play on Golden State.
The Warriors have been dominant in first halves in the playoffs at home, averaging 120.6 points per 100 possessions and giving up only 104.3
Portland, on the other hand, has been one of the worst first half road teams in the playoffs. They have an offensive rating of just 95 in the first halves of their seven postseason road games.
Even in the regular season, the Blazers struggled offensively in first halves on the road, with a 105.1 offensive rating, which ranked 25th in the league.
Golden State’s offense is almost harder to stop without Durant, so with that in mind, I’m going with the Warriors to cover the first half as my official pick and I’ll probably have the Blazers to cover the game.
First Half Score Prediction: Blazers 50 – Warriors 56