Rested Bucks Too Much Against Struggling Nuggets on Monday

bucks

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, November 18, 2018 7:20 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 18, 2018 7:20 PM UTC

The Bucks may be a little banged up when it comes to some of their young role players, but overall, they are going into Monday's game against the Nuggets in a place of strength.

Jordan’s NBA picks record: 5-7

Denver (10-6 SU & 8-8 ATS) at Milwaukee (11-4 SU & 9-5-1 ATS)Monday, 8 p.m. ETFree NBA Pick: Bucks ATSBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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The Milwaukee Bucks have been reborn this season, and with one of the NBA's best players and one of the league’s most underrated coaches, they could come out of the East this year. They are that good. On the flip side you have a Nuggets team that has lost five of their last six games SU, and against a more rested and more talented team, they will falter ATS on Monday.

Bucks’ Home Dominance

Under the coaching of Mike Budenholzer and the leadership and dominance of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have been tough to beat at home. Memphis is the only team to beat them SU in their new building; they are 5-1-1 ATS at home.

A lot of it has to do with their insanely good home defense. The Bucks are allowing only 100.9 points per 100 possessions at home this season, which ranks third-best in the league behind the Celtics and Pacers. They also see their offense improve to 116.1 points per 100 possessions. If they are hitting shots against this staggering Nuggets team, it might be over early for Denver.

Denver has given up 112 points per game over their last five games, and if you exclude their lone win in that stretch, they have allowed nearly 117 points per game.

The story was the same just last week when these two played in Denver. Milwaukee’s offense was too much for the Nuggets, led by Brook Lopez coming out of nowhere to knock down eight three-pointers. Four Bucks players went for 20 points in that game and they won by eight points. Now at home where their defense and offense get better, I see a similar if not even bigger win for the home team.

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What they'll say:
\"They aren't even the best team in the East\"
\"Draymond didn't play\"
\"Steph got hurt and didn't return\"

Me:
No NBA team has defeated the Warriors on their home court since March. Their last loss was to the #Bucks and Milwaukee just did it again. 😏 #FearTheDeer pic.twitter.com/7ubS6NRfUl

— Mike Cianciolo (@MikeCianciolo) November 9, 2018
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What’s Happening To The Nuggets?

Denver opened the season as one of the league’s hottest teams, but since then they have fallen down the Western Conference standings. It has coincided with their defense falling apart lately after starting the season well.

In their first 11 games, the Nuggets had a defense allowing just 101.6 points per 100 possessions, and since then they have given up 113.6 points per 100 possessions in their last five. If that continues, the Bucks will pick this team apart for the second time in less than 10 days.

There is also the Nuggets' offense to be concerned about. Not only does their offense drop to averaging 108.3 points per 100 possessions on the road, they don't match up great with the Bucks to begin with. Other than Nikola Jokic, no one on the Nuggets should give the Bucks too much trouble. If that's the case, Jokic could go for 40 points and the Bucks could still cover the spread.

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