Jordan’s NBA Picks: 79-60-1 (Playoffs 25-22-1)
Golden State (67-29 SU & 41-54 ATS) at Portland (61-35 SU & 52-44 ATS)
Saturday, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN
Free NBA Pick: 1H Over
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
The ending of Game 2 was probably a little deflating for the Blazers, but they have a chance to put that behind him, because a series doesn’t really start until the road team wins. With the Warriors as road underdogs, is the play to bet Golden State on the moneyline, or to put our trust in the Blazers’ stars at home?
Portland’s First Halves At Home
The Blazers have been good this season and postseason by playing well at home. They have done this in the playoffs by getting off to hot starts early in the game and letting their home crowd carry them home.
Portland has an offensive rating better than 115 in the first halves of their home games this postseason and they are also giving up a good amount of points as well. Portland has a 110.3 defensive rating in those six games also.
I could see Golden State taking advantage of that in Game 1, because no matter if it’s on the road or at home, they are capable of fast starts. Golden State has the best first half road offensive rating in the playoffs at 119.2.
While they do get a boost in that category because of their series against the Clippers in the first round, if you take those games away, their scoring does go down considerably, but so does their defense.
Over their last three road playoff games, the Warriors have a defensive rating of 115.8.
The Sharp Pick
With this in mind, I’m leaning towards the first half over on Saturday night. Both of these teams have the ability to play fast and so far in their two playoff games against one another, they have a first half pace of 101.
If the Warriors continue to try and push the pace of this game early on, I think the over is a fine play. While the full game total has ticked up slightly since it opened, the first half total has stayed the same as the opening line. I think we can hit it for some profit for Game 3.
First Half Score Prediction: Warriors 56 – Blazers 58