Jordan’s NBA Picks: 23-12
Saturday, 10:00 PM EST, NBATV
Free NBA Pick: Blazers ML and ATS
Best Line Offered: BetOnline
While this may me a moot point once DeMarcus Cousins makes his season debut, the Warriors are struggling. Their defense has been borderline awful to start this season and heading into Portland on Saturday is not going to change that.
Warriors’ Dynasty Collapsing?
I don’t want to sound alarmist, because the Warriors are still the class of the NBA. However, with the rest of the league looking better than expected and the Warriors looking worse than expected, those betting on a three-peat have to be feeling a little worried right now.
Golden State’s once dominant defense has been anything but this year. While they could make a move at the deadline to improve that by bringing in a talented big man, as of Saturday that has not happened, and they are still starting a forward in the center spot.
That proved to be too much to overcome on Thursday, as Jusuf Nurkic went crazy (as I predicted) and there is no reason to believe the Bosnian Beat won’t do it again, this time at home.
Simply put, the Warriors just can’t stop teams from getting easy buckets. So far this season Golden State is allowing 49 points per game in the paint, which ranks 19th in the league.
Not only does Golden State have to content with Nurkic going nuts, but they also have to contend with one of the Blazers’ guards catching fire.
C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard were only 14-for-42 (33.3%) combined from the floor two nights ago. That won’t happen again from the Moda Center. Lillard has been especially successful when playing against Stephen Curry in the past. Lillard is averaging nearly 33 points per game in his last eight regular season games against Curry. In Lillard’s last four regular season home games against Curry, he is averaging 41.5 points per game.
The Sharp Pick
If Lillard catches fire on Saturday, it’s all over and the Blazers will come away with the SU win. However, the Blazers’ offense goes from a 107.6 offensive rating on the road to 111.9 points per 100 possessions when playing from the Moda Center. This and the potential for some pretty good defense from the Blazers makes them a strong home dog candidate in this one.
We have touched on small home dogs a lot this season and while they haven’t been as successful lately, they are still making a profit by betting them to win outright. As solid dogs at home, bet on the Blazers both SU and ATS for some extra profit making potential.