Free Daily NBA Picks: The Best Two Plays For Thursday's Action

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, March 3, 2016 4:29 PM GMT

After falling on some bad luck last night after seemingly making the right plays, I am back once again to right the ship on Thursday’s short slate of NBA Odds. 

Suns vs. Heat
The Phoenix Suns are probably trying to forget about this season and hope for a high lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. However, they still have about 20 games to go, and once again they are faced with a tough matchup tonight, this time against the Miami Heat. The Heat come in as a huge 14-point favorite in this one, with a total of 211 points. While the spread has stayed relatively the same since it opened late last night, the total has skyrocketed from 205 ½ to 211 and even 211 ½.

Even though the sharps have taken some of the value out of this total, I still think there is some room to bet the over in this one. The Heat have been playing extremely fast since Chris Bosh went down, and their pace in their last six or seven games has been either close, or above 100. This has led to a huge boost to their offensive efficiency, and I think it could lead to the over being the play tonight.

Phoenix has a pace of 98.1 this season, which is the 5th fastest of any team, and even though these two teams played once this season at a pace of 91.5, the Heat were still able to score 103 points on the Suns, despite playing very slow.

Phoenix has been horrible on defense recently, and with more injuries than they had the last time they played Miami, they might have no choice but to run up and down with the heat. Phoenix is giving up 118 points per game in their last eight games, and they have cashed the over in five of their last six games heading into this one. With the Heat shooting the ball at almost 50 percent in their last three meetings with the Suns dating back to last season, the over is the NBA pick tonight.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883368, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NBA Pick: OVER 211
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Kings vs. Mavericks
The Kings have been nothing short of awful on the second half of back to backs this season, and once again they are faced with another game on no rest, this time on the road against the Mavericks. After it looked as if they were going to get blown out last night against the Grizzlies, Sacramento made a comeback to make the game close, but ultimately lost yet again both SU and ATS. Now they travel into Dallas potentially without Rudy Gay once again, and the NBA Odds have the Mavs as -7 favorites, with a large total of 219 ½.

While the Kings could easily stay with the Mavs in this one, they have been horrible on back to backs recently. In their last three back to backs, dating back to the end of January, the Kings are 0-3 ATS, and they have given up an average of 113 points per game.

However, while Dallas could very easily get out to a big lead in this one, much like last night I am a bit concerned about the Kings buckling down and making a comeback later in the game.

That is why I am looking towards the first half spread of -4 in favor of the Mavs. In those three recent losses on no rest, the Kings were outscored in the first half by an average margin of nine points, and the two more recent ones they were outscored by double figures in the first halves. Tonight against Dallas, a team that has been scorching on offense recently averaging over 120 points per game in their last five games, I’m fading the Kings in the first half of this one.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883370, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NBA Pick: 1st Half Mavericks -3.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker