Forget The Spread, Take ‘Under’ For Nuggets-Warriors

Thursday, March 7, 2019 11:58 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 7, 2019 11:58 PM UTC

The Denver Nuggets make the ‘under’ a solid NBA pick when they’re on the road. The Golden State Warriors do the same at home. Friday’s pick is a slam-dunk.

<p style="text-align:right;"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 6:</strong><br />18-15-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 23-9 Totals</em></p><h2 style="text-align:center;">Denver (43-21 SU, 35-29 ATS) at Golden State (44-20 SU, 25-38-1 ATS)</h2><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN<br />Free NBA Pick: Under<br />Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">Bovada</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3570053, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,19,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>If you’re like me, the Denver Nuggets jump out as a healthy <a href="" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">NBA pick</a> for Friday’s game in Oakland against the Golden State Warriors. The Nuggets are a relatively unknown small-market team on the rise; they’ve been profitable all year, and they got us paid in their last game, a 115-99 dismantling of the Los Angeles Lakers (+5 at home). <a href="" target="_blank" title="Denver - Golden State Betting Odds">The Warriors are the exact opposite of the Nuggets</a>, a public team that’s near the end of its dynastic cycle, not to mention deep in the red.<br /><br />Too bad the <a href="" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">NBA odds</a> aren’t playing along. The Nuggets opened as 5.5-point road dogs for Friday’s matchup, and even though they’ve already moved to +6.5 as we go to press, that’s still not enough points – not according to the projections at FiveThirtyEight, which have Golden State pegged as an 8-point chalk. Nerts.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Klay Thompson still looks to be favoring his left knee a bit. Shooting well, though. &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Kate Rooney (@TheKateRooney) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;6 de março de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Under The Influence</strong></h2><p>Not to worry. As you can see, we’re putting the ‘under’ in our picks this time, and it’s not just by default, either. The Warriors have been playing uninspired basketball for a while now, as they prepare for yet another deep run in the playoffs; they have the ‘under’ at 5-1 in their last six games, and again, <a href="" target="_blank" title="Uninspired Celtics, Warriors Make ‘Under’ The Right NBA Pick">they got us paid</a> on Tuesday when they lost 128-95 (Under 228) to the Boston Celtics as 6.5-point home faves.<br /><br />And the Nuggets? They’ve driven the ‘under’ to the pay window in each of their last seven games. There’s also a tasty home/away split in play here; Denver has the ‘under’ at 19-11-1 on the road this year, while Golden State have it at 18-14 at The Oracle. If that doesn’t whet your appetite, how about this: Friday’s total has already gone up from 233 to 234 points on the NBA odds board as I write this.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Dub Step</strong></h2><p>Hold on to those wallets and/or purses, though. It’s important to figure out who’s playing and who isn’t before placing these bets, and in this case, there are four Warriors listed as day-to-day:</p><ul> <li>Klay Thompson (plus-1.3 OBPM, minus-2.2 DBPM)</li> <li>Kevon Looney (plus-1.5 OBPM, plus-1.7 DBPM)</li> <li>Andre Iguodala (plus-0.4 OBPM, plus-1.7 DBPM)</li> <li>Shaun Livingston (minus-2.1 OBPM, plus-0.5 DBPM)</li></ul><p>As you can see by those Box Plus/Minus stats for offense and defense, Thompson (knee) is the one we least want to see on the court Friday night. Alas, he’s listed as probable after missing the last two games. But fortunately for us, Looney (hip) and Livingston (neck) are also expected to play; Iguodala (back) we don’t know about just yet. The ‘under’ should still be the right play here, but you might want to dial the bet size down a little with Thompson in the mix – and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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