Flying Bricks Make ‘Over’ The Right NBA Pick For Raptors-Sixers Game 3

Wednesday, May 1, 2019 1:05 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 1, 2019 1:05 PM UTC

They destroyed the rims in Game 2, but that only makes the ‘over’ a better NBA pick for Thursday’s Game 3 between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Apr. 30: 28-29-1 ATS, 0-6 ML (minus-12.63 units), 37-23-1 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Toronto (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Over</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href=";book=5dimes" target="_blank">5Dimes</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3782776, "sportsbooksIds":[19,238,169,180,186], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>The talking heads of the sports world can breathe a little easier – the Philadelphia 76ers won’t get swept out of the second round. They beat the Toronto Raptors 94-89 on Tuesday, cashing in as 7.5-point road dogs on the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a> and evening their series at one game apiece. Game 3 is Thursday night at the WFC; will the Raptors get their revenge?<br /><br />It’s a toss-up. At press time, Toronto is available anywhere between –1 and +1 for Thursday’s matchup, <a href="" target="_blank">depending on where you shop</a>. And that’s a pretty sharp line, according to the hoop nerds at FiveThirtyEight. They have Game 3 pegged as a pick’em using their CARMELO-based algorithm. Dude, where’s our profit margin? Oh, here it is: The total is 214 points, down from 215 at the open, and that’s just begging for us to put the ‘over’ in our <a href="" target="_blank">NBA picks</a>.</p><p></p><h2>A Shortage Of Corn</h2><p></p><p>Thanks to the playoff schedule, we’ve got ample time to get this pick in before tip-off – and we’ve got Jeff Sagarin’s projections at <em>USA Today</em> to work with. Sagarin also has Thursday’s game as a virtual pick’em, but specifically with a combined score of 226.52 points. You could fit five Joel Embiids in the gap between his projections and the actual total.<br /><br />This is what happens when the market over-reacts to previous events. Thursday’s total is down from 223 points in Game 1, and 220 points in Game 2 – both of which went ‘under’ by a wide margin. <a href="" target="_blank">You know what’s coming next, don’t you</a>? That’s right: regression to the mean on 3-pointers. Here’s how both teams shot from downtown up North:<br /><br /><em>Raptors:</em> 9-of-27 (33.3 percent), 10-of-37 (27.0 percent)<br /><em>Sixers:</em> 11-of-32 (34.4 percent), 10-of-35 (28.6 percent)<br /><br />That’s just brutal. Game 1 wasn’t too far beyond the pale; the Raptors won 108-95 as 6.5-point home faves, and looked like they were going to dominate Philadelphia in this series. Then in Game 2, they couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a canoe. Danny Green (plus-0.2 OBPM, plus-1.7 DBPM in seven playoff games) shot 1-of-6 from behind the arc. Marc Gasol (plus-4.1 OBPM, plus-3.6 DBPM) shot 1-of-4. So did the entire Toronto bench combined.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Looking forward to the explanation of the Jimmy Butler leg kick on Danny Green tomorrow. Should I hold my breath? &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Guy MacPherson (@GuyMacPherson) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;April 30, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />The Sixers didn’t do very well themselves. Jimmy Butler (plus-2.9 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM) drew a lot of praise for taking over the offense in Game 2 and scoring 30 points, but he did it on 9-of-22 shooting. We expect better from <a href="" target="_blank">both teams in Game 3</a>, and since this is a very close contest on paper, overtime looms as a distinct possibility. Five more minutes! Stick that in your projections, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
comment here