Fired Up Heat Offers Most Valuable NBA Pick Of The Night vs. Magic

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, April 8, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 8, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

We have had positive returns in the NBA picks each day this week.  Today, we go for a 4-0 ATS sweep for the week, using the same thinking as we have the entire week, namely, a super-surger (who is a series dominator) vs. a towel-tosser. 

The NBA Pick tonight is on the Miami Heat, as they travel to Orlando for the 1st of a 2-game weekend set against the Magic.  Since LeBron went north, Miami has dominated this series, going 5-1 SU ATS the last 2 years.  That includes a pair of victories this season by scores of 108-97 in Miami and 108-101 on this floor.

A look at the Eastern Conference standings shows us that Orlando is locked into the No. 11 spot with a 33-45 SU record. Miami remains in a dog fight with Atlanta, Boston and Charlotte, as they look to gain home court advantage in the upcoming NBA Playoffs.  Those 4 teams are separated by no more than 1 game in the loss column with Miami currently clinging to the 5th position with a 46-32 SU record.

With the return of big man, Vucevic (22/8 the last 4 games), the improved play of Fournier (20 PPG the last 4 games) and the steady service of Oladipo, Orlando is on a 4-2 SU run, scoring 116 PPG on 53% shooting.  Missing tonight’s action will be steady contributor Gordon (9/7) on the front line.   Orlando will have a tough time scoring against a Miami defense that is No. 3 in the NBA at 98.3 PPG.  But, the biggest problem for the Magic is their own defense, which is allowing 103 PPG (better than only Washington, Brooklyn and Philly in the East).

Since learning that Chris Bosh (blood clots) will miss the remainder of the season, Miami has super-surged to a 14-6 SU record, averaging 109 PPG on 50% shooting.  The addition of veteran Joe Johnson blended easily into the mix with major contributors, Wade, Whiteside, Deng and Dragic.  Last night, the Heat beat the Bulls for us (106-98) with the help of a 66-52 second half.

Tonight, we are right back on Miami, as they fit our mold perfectly of the series dominator (who is super-surging) against a team who is out of playoff contention.  Note the excellence of Miami in this role, as they are 12-5 ATS as road chalk this season, including 10-3 ATS if not favored by more than 6 points.  Meanwhile, Orlando has been a mediocre 15-15 against the NBA Odds at home, if not receiving more than 4 points.

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NBA Pick:  Heat +1 -105
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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