Finding Sports Betting Value in Heat vs. Spurs Game 1

Thursday, June 5, 2014 1:26 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 5, 2014 1:26 PM UTC

The rematch everyone's been waiting for is here. The Spurs, however, have home-court advantage this time around and will try to protect it in Game 1 tonight. Who are we putting our faith in with our NBA picks?
<p><b>Odds Overview<br /></b><span style="font-size:1em">The Spurs are 4 to 4.5-point favorites at most of the sportsbooks we've examined. The Heat are an extremely profitable 10-5 ATS in the playoffs so far, while San Antonio are an even 9-9 <a target="_blank" title="Do you know which were the Best Bets Against the Spread in 2013-2014?" href="/nba-basketball/news/nba-betting-best-bets-against-spread-2013-2014-a-39542/">against the spread</a>. </span><span style="font-size:1em">Game 1's total ranges from 198 to 199.5.</span></p> <p><br /><span style="font-size:1em"></span><b style="font-size:1em">Miami Heat<br /></b><span style="font-size:1em">It's been a relatively <a target="_blank" title="Capper Jason Lake shares his prediction for the Heat back in February" href="/nba-basketball/news/nba-picks-can-heat-win-again-a-37028/">straight-forward postseason for the Heat</a> so far. </span><span style="font-size:1em">They opened the playoffs with a four-game sweep of Charlotte, and then took care of Brooklyn in five. In the Eastern Conference Finals, they proved too much for Indiana, winning in six games, despite not having home-court advantage. </span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">The </span><span style="font-size:1em">Big Three have imposed their will, like usual. LeBron James is averaging 27.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 5.0 APG in the playoffs so far, while Dwyane Wade (18.7 PPG, 4.3 APG and 3.9 RPG) and Chris Bosh (15.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG) have had their moments too.</span><span style="font-size:1em">But it's the role players that have ultimately made the difference for Miami. We've seen the likes of Ray Allen, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole and Rashard Lewis make significant impacts at some point in this postseason. Even James Jones, Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem have contributed.</span><span style="font-size:1em">Considering the Spurs have the deepest team in the NBA and have used that to catapult into the Finals, the Heat are going to need everyone to step up. It all starts with LeBron and D-Wade's effectiveness is hugely important too, but we're interested to see which role players have the most say.</span></p> <p><br /><span style="font-size:1em"></span><b style="font-size:1em">San Antonio Spurs<br /></b><img src="" class="imgSelectedPicture article-image" alt="Image preview" id="ctl00_head_ArticleAdministrator_picturePreview_imgSelectedPicture" /><span style="font-size:1em">After getting pushed to their limit by the Mavericks, the Spurs have been getting better, and better throughout the playoffs. </span><span style="font-size:1em">They took care of an exciting young Portland team in five games, and then rose to the occasion in the conference finals, overcoming the star power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to win in six games. </span><span style="font-size:1em"><a target="_blank" title="We have considered the Spurs contenders for Playoffs since Septemeber 2013" href="/picks/nba/nba-picks-san-antonio-spurs-team-futures-odds/33612/">San Antonio's depth </a>has been on show throughout the postseason, but Tony Parker's health is crucial to the team's chances in the Finals. He's averaged a team-best 17.2 PPG and 4.9 APG so far in the playoffs, despite being nowhere near 100 percent physically. </span><span style="font-size:1em">Parker is just one of many who's been playing at a high level. Tim Duncan's averaged 16.5 PPG and 8.9 RPG in the playoffs, while Manu Ginobili, <a target="_blank" title="Bettors discuss Leonard's odds to win the MVP" href="">Kawhi Leonard</a>, and Boris Diaw have averaged in double figures as well. </span><span style="font-size:1em">Toss in the likes of Danny Green, Tiago Splitter, Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli, all of whom have been playing important minutes for San Antonio, and you can see why this team has had so much success.</span></p> <p><br /><span style="font-size:1em"></span><b style="font-size:1em">Game 1 Pick<br /></b><span style="font-size:1em">Since that Game 2 loss to Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs, the Spurs haven't fallen at home. </span><span style="font-size:1em">In fact, San Antonio has been flat-out dominant on their own court since that defeat, covering the spread in seven of their last eight matchups there, including games against the Mavericks, Trail Blazers and Thunder. In the Western Conference Finals, Duncan and company throttled Oklahoma City by an average margin of 26.7 points in the three home meetings, s</span><span style="font-size:1em">o while we expect a significant chunk of the public to <a target="_blank" title="Capper Lawrence says to Bet on the Heat +4 vs. Spurs Game 1" href="/picks/nba/nba-picks-bet-the-heat-4-vs-spurs-game-1/39951/">side with Miami in Game 1</a>, we feel like San Antonio is the better play. </span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">The Spurs are playing outstanding team basketball right now, and have been buoyed in a big way by their crowd in these massively important contests. Back them to cover the chalk with <a target="_blank" title="Know everything there is to know about NBA betting here" href="/picks/nba/">your basketball picks</a>.</span></p> <p><br /><b style="font-size:1em">Free NBA Pick: </b><span style="font-size:1em">Back the San Antonio Spurs -4</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em"><br />[gameodds]5/295575/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]<br /></span></p>
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