Finding NBA Picks Value on Monday Night's Schedule

Jordan Sharp

Monday, December 1, 2014 4:23 PM GMT

It’s a shorter card of NBA action tonight but that doesn’t mean there is still nice value in the betting odds. I have found two matchups that I am adding to my NBA Picks. 

Nuggets vs. Jazz
By far this is my favorite game to bet on tonight, as the Nuggets head into Utah as a -3 road favorite, with a total of 208 points. You can even find the Nuggets as -2 ½ favorite still, and that is by far the best play of the night. After a slow start to the season, the Nuggets have really come on recently. They have covered six of their last nine games, and are looking like the solid offensive unit we have come to expect from the Mile High City.

A lot of it has to do with the emergence of Ty Lawson, who is going to eat Trey Burke for dinner tonight. Burke has already bee struggling, and Lawson’s quickness and improved shooting should hurt the Utah defense tonight. On top of Lawson, the Nuggets are very balanced offensively. They have six or seven guys that could get into double figures on any given night, and that makes them very difficult to game plan for. The return of Danilo Gallanari hasn’t hurt either. He is quickly regaining his form after missing the entire season last year with an ACL tear.

The Nuggets are currently 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games this season as favorites, and during their current six of nine covering streak, they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven. The Jazz on the other hand are only 1-4 ATS in their last five, and I see them losing again tonight.

Free NBA Pick: Nuggets -2.5 at BetOnline

 

Spurs vs. Sixers
I don’t think Gregg Popovich (who just made his return to the Spurs bench) is going to overly rest any of his players tonight, because even though it’s the Sixers, I doubt the defending champs want to be the Sixers’ first win. However make sure you double-check the entire Spurs’ roster statuses going into tonight’s game. The sportsbooks do have the Spurs heavily favored at -13, with an NBA Odds total of 197 ½. However instead of focusing on the spread, which could be very volatile if news comes that Popovich is resting some players after a game just yesterday, I am going with a bet on the total.

At 197 ½, the total has gone up some since it opened yesterday evening at 195 ½. However even with the total going up two full points, I still think the over is a great play. It’s matchup proof, and I think it gets even better if the Spurs rest some of their guys. San Antonio’s defense has been good this season, and if they are without some starters such as Tim Duncan, it definitely gives the Sixers more offensive upside.

The over is 5-2 in the Sixers’ last seven games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, while the over is also 5-1 in their last six games against teams with a .600 or better record. While the Spurs have been cashing the under a lot this season, I see the trends shifting for them tonight against this bottom-feeder team that hasn’t won a game. The Sixers are giving up nearly 106 points per game this season, and if the Spurs can get that much, the NBA odds total is cashing the over.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 197 ½