Finding NBA Betting Value in Tonight's Totals

David Lawrence

Wednesday, November 26, 2014 12:59 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2014 12:59 PM GMT

There’s a whopping 13 games on the NBA card on Wednesday night before the Thanksgiving break. We’re focusing on totals tonight, so here’s our three best NBA picks from the card.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Total:
197.5
The first instinct of a lot of people is going to be the under here. The Sixers are next to last in the NBA, averaging just under 90 points per game. Viewed solely through this lens, you would think that the game would go under. Brooklyn averages a flat 100 points per game, putting the Nets right in the middle of the NBA (15th out of 30 teams). This game, according to those numbers, will have just 190 points. However, when you flip the equation, you might see that the over is a much more sensible bet than at first glance. The Nets allow an average of 101 points per game, and the Sixers allow 105.9 points per game, essentially 106. If you go by the defensive averages of these teams, 207 points will be scored. If you’re torn, then, and are unsure of which way to go, simply do the math. The low number of 190 and the high number of 207 balance out to an average of 198.5, which is one point over the number. Go with the over.

Pick: Under at 5Dimes

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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Charlotte Hornets
Total:
196
This game definitely seems like an over, and it should indeed be picked as such. Portland is good at establishing the kind of game it wants. With Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge as reliable starters, the Blazers can create all sorts of matchup advantages and score with great consistency. Portland averages 104.4 points per game, and that right there is a great argument in favor of the over. Charlotte averages 94 points per game, which is not great, but in tandem with 104 points for Portland, you’ll get a composite total of 198 points. The Hornets are not a smothering defensive team, either. They rate 18th in the NBA, which means that Portland is not likely to be slowed down by Charlotte. As long as Portland scores at the rate it is accustomed to, you should probably see the game go over, especially since Charlotte might get drawn into a faster game and might score a few buckets more than it normally does.

Pick: Over at Bovada

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Total:
201.5
This is an under. The Lakers scored only 94 points in overtime at home on Sunday night, and that was against the Denver Nuggets. The Grizzlies have the third-best scoring defense in the NBA, averaging 92.4 points allowed per game. Memphis’ offense is really why this game should be bet at the under. The Grizzlies still don’t score an average of 100 points per game. They’re at 99.9 entering this game. How will this game reach the 200-point plateau? Both teams would have to play a lot better than their season averages would indicate. Go under with your NBA picks.

Pick: Under at The Greek

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