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NBA Finals Futures Odds and Picks: Warriors Open as Favorites to Go Back-to-Back

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NBA Finals Futures Odds and Picks: Warriors Open as Favorites to Go Back-to-Back
Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors celebrate with his NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award during the Victory Parade. Photo by Michael Urakami/Getty Images via AFP.

With the NBA season in the rearview mirror and the offseason in full swing, let’s look at the 2022-23 NBA Finals futures odds and where value is currently found in the early picks. 

The Golden State Warriors opened with odds of +1200 to win the NBA Finals last offseason. The Warriors went on to win their fourth title in eight seasons under the leadership of head coach Steve Kerr and the star power of point guard Stephen Curry.

As the Warriors’ odds to win the title dropped as low as +425 during the regular season, they increased to +1000 just before the playoffs began and quickly dropped back to +150 following the elimination of the Phoenix Suns.

Will Curry lead the Warriors to back-to-back NBA titles, or will a new team emerge and take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy?

Below we examine the 2022-23 NBA Finals odds and look for the early value picks.

2022-23 NBA Finals Odds

2022-23 NBA Finals Picks: Favorites

Warriors (+600 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Although Curry is getting older, one could argue that the Warriors are only getting better. Three young high draft picks, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and James Wiseman have yet to contribute significantly to the team. Andrew Wiggins also made significant progress in the playoffs and he is still only 27 years of age. I would fade the early price, rather than the team because it is significantly lower than what the Warriors opened at last season.

Nets (+700 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

I am not interested in acquiring futures on the Brooklyn Nets, especially this early in the process and at a price of +700. Although they still have Kevin Durant, there are many problems with this organization and I wouldn't be surprised if they parted ways with Kyrie Irving.

Celtics (+700 via FanDuel)

The Boston Celtics opened at +4000 last offseason to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship and are now opening at a price as low as +600 this offseason. They will return the core of their squad with no significant free agents to worry about, but with their playoff run still fresh in our minds, this opening price is too low in my eyes.

Bucks (+800 via DraftKings)

Although the Milwaukee Bucks were the 2020-21 NBA Champions and have one of the best players in the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo, they always seem to be overlooked in the futures market. Last season, the Bucks opened at +900 and did not have a price higher than +750 throughout the regular season. While I would wait to see what they do in the offseason, I am certainly interested in adding them to my portfolio as long as Antetokounmpo is on the team.

Clippers (+800 via Caesars Sportsbook)

I am not sure what the fascination with the Los Angeles Clippers in these opening odds is all about. At DraftKings and PointsBet, they opened as co-favorites at +600 to win the NBA Championship. In my opinion, there are so many better ways to invest my money if I were looking to buy a team with a price as low as +800 than to invest in the Clippers.

Suns (+950 via FanDuel)

The Phoenix Suns may have missed their chance to win a championship with Chris Paul and it is very likely that they will lose Deandre Ayton in free agency. They will still be a very strong team next season, but I do not think they will be +950 strong.

2022-23 NBA Finals Picks: Contenders

Heat (+1600 via DraftKings)

This is a team that I will be keeping a close eye on this offseason, especially with a +1600 price point available. My belief is that the Miami Heat are determined to acquire a superstar this offseason, and I trust head coach Erik Spoelstra and the Heat organization with my money. When the rumors around the Heat begin to increase, I will try to purchase their +1600 odds before they move.

76ers (+1600 via FanDuel)

While Joel Embiid may be one of the best players in the NBA, it is difficult to support the Philadelphia 76ers if head coach Doc Rivers is drawing the plays during a timeout. However, +1600 for the Sixers is an intriguing price, considering that they were as short as +700 during the regular season last year.

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Grizzlies (+1900 via FanDuel)

The Memphis Grizzles do not strike me as an organization that will be looking to make a big splash this offseason that could have a significant impact on their futures pricing. I believe they will be more interested in retaining their young talent and running it back with a core centered around point guard Ja Morant. Due to this reason, I could actually see their odds increasing before the season begins as other teams make headlines with flashy offseason moves.

Mavericks (+1900 via FanDuel)

The NBA is a league where it takes a superstar to win a championship, and Luka Doncic is just that kind of player for the Dallas Mavericks. With +1900 odds available, I would pay close attention to the offseason moves of the Mavericks, as Doncic is more than capable of leading them to a championship.

Lakers (+2200 via Caesars)

The Los Angeles Lakers opened the 2021-22 season with odds of +450 to win the NBA Finals, and with the same trio of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook returning for the 2022-23 season, we now see them opening at +2200. The Lakers are a team whose current price point of +2200 may drastically change if they make an impactful offseason move.

Nuggets (+2200 via Caesars)

I am interested in the price of +2200 we are getting on the Denver Nuggets at Caesars. The +1500 offered by DraftKings is considerably less attractive. If Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are fully healthy, the Nuggets are a team that is poised to take the next step with Nikola Jokic, similar to Antetokounmpo and the Bucks in 2021.

2022-23 NBA Finals Picks: Longshots

Jazz (+5000 via Caesars)

There will be no chance of me investing in Utah Jazz futures this offseason with head coach Quinn Snyder gone, Rudy Gobert on the trading block, and the possibility of Donovan Mitchell being traded as well. When the season begins, I anticipate their odds to be even higher than +5000.

Pelicans (+6000 via Caesars)

For a team such as the New Orleans Pelicans, which has CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and a deep roster, +6000 is a high price. Whether they can win the NBA Championship is unclear, but I would certainly expect their price to be considerably lower than +6000 before the playoffs begin next season.

Raptors (+6000 via FanDuel)

It takes superstars to win an NBA Championship, and although the Toronto Raptors have a strong core of players, they lack a superstar on their roster. As a result of their reputation under head coach Nick Nurse and a recent championship, the Raptors are priced much lower than they should be. The Pelicans have a much more talented roster and they are also trading at odds of +6000.

Timberwolves (+6500 via FanDuel)

The Minnesota Timberwolves celebrated as though they had won the NBA Championship last season when it was actually only the play-in game. With Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves have enough talent to make the playoffs, but they are not serious title contenders. The +6500 odds are not high enough for me to consider purchasing shares of the Timberwolves.

Bulls (+6500 via FanDuel)

At +6500, I believe the sportsbooks are pricing the Chicago Bulls as if Zach LaVine will return this offseason. My guess is that the Bulls will not be able to retain LaVine, and if that is the case, their odds will increase significantly from the opening number of +6500.

Hawks (+8500 via FanDuel)

FanDuel has far less faith in the Atlanta Hawks than Caesars, as FanDuel opened them at +8500 and Caesars opened them at +6000. There will be some interesting changes in the Hawks' roster this offseason with John Collins expected to be traded but +8500 isn't high enough for me to consider investing in this team.

Cavaliers (+12000 via FanDuel)

The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the rise as they opened last season with odds of +50000 to win the NBA Championship and are now trading at +12000 to do so this year. Even though their roster has improved, they are not serious contenders for the championship and the +12000 is not worth investing in.

2022-23 NBA Finals Picks: Don't Waste Your Money

Hornets (+12500 via Caesars)

The Charlotte Hornets are a good team to back if you are looking for a team that will lose by 40 points in the play-in game. The Hornets will have to shell out a massive contract to retain Miles Bridges this offseason, leaving little financial flexibility to improve their roster. With a price of +12500 and no real opportunity to improve the roster, I would recommend that the Hornets be faded.

Knicks (+20000 via DraftKings)

The best case scenario for the New York Knicks is that they are able to acquire Mitchell from the Jazz through a trade. Even if they achieve this, it wouldn't be enough to make them title contenders. There is little doubt that the Portland Trail Blazers are a stronger wager in this price window since they already have one superstar in place.

Trail Blazers (+21000 via FanDuel)

The markets have soured on the Trail Blazers, opening them at +21000, but this is a team that still has Damian Lillard and they are not planning to tank. The Trail Blazers are actively seeking talent to with which to surround Lillard and I anticipate this +21000 price point to be significantly shorter once the season begins.

Spurs (+35000 via DraftKings)

I simply do not see the appeal of the San Antonio Spurs at a price point of +35000 on DraftKings. It is possible that their roster could be even worse next season if they decide to trade Dejounte Murray this offseason. There is no reason to invest in the Spurs at +35000 as they are so far from winning a title.

Wizards (+50000 via Caesars)

Considering the talent on the Washington Wizards' roster in comparison to other teams priced significantly lower than the Wizards, the +50000 price point at Caesars is pretty wild. There are rumors that the Wizards are in the market for another All-Star to pair with Bradley Beal as they prepare to offer him a maximum contract. Although I do not think the Wizards have a realistic chance of winning the NBA Finals, it is significant to note how Caesars is undervaluing the Wizards once other markets are released.

Pacers (+75000 via Caesars)

There are several good players on the Indiana Pacers roster, including Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon, but none of them are superstars. It is a superstar league, and with a potential reset taking place with the Pacers in 2022-23, there is no path for them being competitive.

Pistons (+75000 via Caesars)

As crazy as I may sound, I was considering throwing an extremely small amount of money into this bet on the Detroit Pistons due to the +75000 price point that is offered by Caesars. We know that things aren't going as planned for Irving and Durant in Brooklyn, and we have seen Durant working out with Cade Cunningham in the offseason. Although it is very unlikely to happen, with a price of +75000 available, the idea could be worth a small wager.

Kings (+100000 via Caesars)

As a result of their reputation, the Sacramento Kings are definitely priced higher than they should be, since their roster is clearly more talented than their implied odds of winning the title. However, it is not like you can take advantage of the Kings' price point since they won't make the NBA Finals.

Magic (+100000 via Caesars)

Don't be surprised if the Orlando Magic quickly turn this around with their No. 1 pick and ample cap space this offseason. While they could end up sneaking into the play-in games, they are far from being title contenders.

Thunder (+100000 via Caesars)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are building their team through the draft and it will take many seasons before they are truly competitive. They should have much shorter odds in the coming years due to all of the high draft picks they will make in the upcoming seasons.

Rockets (+100000 via Caesars)

The only futures market in which I would consider backing the Houston Rockets next season would be to have the worst record in the NBA.

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NBA futures picks made on 6/20/2022 at 6:25 p.m. ET.