Weekly NBA Betting Notes, Feb. 4-10: Trade Deadline Adds Intrigue

Sunday, February 3, 2019 4:26 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 3, 2019 4:26 PM UTC

The trade deadline approaches this week and there are several standout trends, games, and tips you’ll need to account for this week if you want to remain -- or become -- a profitable NBA bettor.

Home Dogs Are Dead

A couple of months ago I wrote about how home underdogs were crushing it ATS. As of the beginning of December, if you were to have blindly taken the first 85 home dogs that had +200 odds or less, you would have been up 20 units.

It was earlier in the season when very few teams were outright tanking. It led to some competitive games, especially in this day of super teams being heavy favorites on the road. At that time, we knew less than half of what we know now and over the last month our home dog system has taken a beating.

Since January 1, home dogs of +200 or less are only 15-28 SU. It’s not much better ATS either, as they have covered just one more game at 16-27 ATS. The favorites are getting better as the season goes on, while the underdogs are getting worse.

Late-breaking injuries and the January blues all have a play in home dogs getting worse, but it’s not too surprising. In the age where tanking is the hot trend to try and snag one of those coveted bottom three spots, I feel like the league has created even less incentive to win and to play your best players in the second half of the season.

By trying to eliminate tanking by getting rid of the 25-percent chance to get the top draft pick with the worst record, the league has inadvertently made it an easier decision for teams to tank. With three teams getting a 14 percent chance at the top lottery spot, you have at least six teams vying for those bottom three spots. The three that don’t get those 14 percent spots will get 12.5 percent, 10.5 percent, and 9 percent chances too, so while it does make the draft a bit more of a lottery, it has made it so more teams have easier decisions whether to lose on purpose.

That being said, the bigger home dogs have actually fared somewhat better over the month of January and into February. Home dogs of +5.5 or greater are 14-15-2 ATS since January 1.

Trade Deadline Deals

This trade deadline could be one for the ages, or it could be a huge flop. We already saw one major trade of Kristaps Porzingis that assembled so fast it left most of the basketball universe with spinning heads trying to decipher what happened.

However, could the bigger fish be on the horizon? Could the Celtics trade Kyrie Irving to Los Angeles? Could Anthony Davis be headed to L.A. too? What in the hell is going on?

One thing the deadline does do is make for some crazy line movement on the days of games. If a team executes a huge trade on the day of a game, the odds of those lines being values as soon as the news hits are high.

With that in mind, the closer we get to Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, the more profitable it’s going to be for you to be by your computer and constantly checking Twitter. If a big trade breaks and involves multiple stars or rotation players, it will be valuable to be ahead of that news before the sportsbooks can react and change or take down odds for a certain game.

It’s also a big night on Thursday with the first-ever All-Star Draft.

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NBA nerds, circle Feb. 7 on your calendar!

- The 2019 NBA Trade Deadline is at 3 p.m. ET.

- The 2019 NBA All-Star Draft is at 7 p.m. ET. pic.twitter.com/x2OJ660eGu

— Alex Kennedy (@AlexKennedyNBA) February 3, 2019
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Big Game Watch

ESPN has a nice game on Wednesday with the Spurs visiting the Warriors, but TNT on Tuesday and Thursday will be the ones to watch. Tuesday features a nice Eastern Conference showdown between the Sixers and Raptors, followed by a nice Thursday doubleheader featuring the Lakers versus Celtics on trade-deadline night and Spurs versus Portland in the nightcap. The Lakers also play next Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia on ABC.

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