February 18 Weekly Betting Notes For Smart NBA Picks

Sunday, February 17, 2019 7:45 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 17, 2019 7:45 PM UTC

The All Star Break is over and with this short week of NBA action, there are several stand-out trends, games, and tips you’ll need to account for this week if you want to remain, or become a profitable NBA bettor.

Vacation Hangover

A lot is made about the week or two leading up to the All Star Break as a “hangover,” period, but what about the few days right after the break is over? You ever returned to peak performance at work after taking over a week off?

The NBA All Star Break has gotten longer over the last couple of years and combined with the increased pace and overall love of the three-pointer taking over the league, it has led to some interesting trends starting to be established.

The break only got a little longer for some teams, but there is at least a minimum amount of days (8) that all teams have had off. The league-favorite Lakers have nine days in between games.

If any of you have ever played basketball, you know the feeling of getting back on the court after a long layoff.

Everything seems off, your shot is completely broken if you haven’t worked on it in a week(s), and your conditioning is out of sync.

I’m sure most guys stayed in shape over the break and didn’t sit on their couches, but I also kind of think I may be wrong on that. For the majority of players that don’t participate in any of the contests or games over the weekend, that week-plus of vacation time might be spent on some remote tropical island with lots of alcohol and tons of things to do other than work on your jump shot.

That being said, over the last four seasons since the NBA introduced their new All Star Break schedule, the total trends have started to skew towards the over.

Last year in the four days following the All Star Break, where almost every team played two games, the over is 61-53-1 (53.5%).

If you isolated just the weekend games it gets better. The over has cashed at 28-22 on the evening Saturday and Sunday games directly following the break.

If most of these guys come out flat, it may be on defense rather than offense. It takes a lot of energy to play defense, arguably more than offense. That could mean some guys who are typically great defenders turn into good ones for a few games, while the average defenders could turn bad.

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Who are the top 15 #NBA teams at the All-Star Break?https://t.co/E26tfJuLOT

— The Game Haus Sports (@TGHSports) February 17, 2019
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Big Game Watch

As is true for this time of year when the NFL season has already been forgotten, ABC starts to have some nice marquee matchups on the weekends. This week’s matchup is actually a primetime night game on Saturday though between the Rockets and Warriors.

NBA TV has some nice games on Sunday, but the week-night national TV games this week are even more inviting.

TNT’s doubleheader on Thursday features the Celtics and Bucks going at it, followed by the Rockets and Lakers hooking up for their first game back from the All Star Break.

Out of the 12 teams that play on the first Thursday back from the break, seven of them are playing with paces that rank them in the top 12 in the league.

If the lack of defense happens after the long layoff, make sure you’re backing the over in some of the games that also feature defenses that are already suspect.

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