Weekly NBA Betting Notes For February 11-16

Sunday, February 10, 2019 4:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 10, 2019 4:37 PM UTC

The All Star Break approaches this week and there are several stand-out trends, games, and tips you’ll need to account for this week if you want to remain, or become a profitable NBA bettor.

 

On Vacation Already, We're Looking At You, Knicks

With the NBA season starting earlier over the last couple of years, it has led to an exaggeration in previous trends that may have been subtle, but now look a little more aggressive with teams having played nearly three-quarters of the season before the week off.

For instance, the teams that were favorites went just 10-15 ATS leading up to the break last season and the defense went away completely in the final three days before the break. The "over" was 13-6 in the three days leading up to the break and that could be the trend to follow this week away more and more teams go on vacation just a few days early.

You’ll probably have to excuse games between playoff teams, especially ones within the same conference, because those games still mean a lot and the players and coaches obviously know this.

However, be on the lookout for good teams playing at home against bad teams, or the classic tanking-versus-tanking team matchups this week. Those might be the ones to target for over plays.

The Knicks play the Cavs in the first game to start the new week on Monday, and neither team wants to win that game. The same could be said about Washington and Detroit at the same time Monday, as well as the Magic and Pelicans on Tuesday.

Seeing as it’s a short week, most of the league only has two games this week, but there are a few exceptions. The Jazz, Kings, Blazers, Suns, and Lakers are blessed enough to only have one game this week. Also, the Knicks are the only team with three games, making them a juicy over contender this week with their matchups against the Cavs on Monday, and then on their Wednesday-Thursday back-to-back against the 76ers and Hawks.

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Marcus Morris said when he looks at the Celtics he sees a bunch of individuals. Said he sees everyone else having fun around the league, they don’t have fun.

“It hasn’t been fun for a long time.”

— Jay King (@ByJayKing) February 10, 2019
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Is It Time To Keep Fading Boston?

Marcus Morris had some interesting comments about the Celtics and the rest of the league over the weekend and I think it is a great example of the underlying disfunction within this Boston Celtics team.

Wow. That may be something you admit to coaches or players, but don’t say that to the media. Morris is essentially been the Celtics’ second best player this year, so I feel like he has a right to say this. He also is a veteran in that locker room and too be honest with all the trade talks surrounding Boston and Anthony Davis, it makes complete sense on why they can’t seem to live up to expectations. If the front office and organization are focused on shipping half the team to New Orleans, how do you think they feel about buying in to winning for their current team?

Boston is only 5-11 ATS over their last 16 games and it would not surprise me to see them continue to struggle ATS over the rest of the season. After every other contender in the East got better at the deadline, Boston is fade-worthy in my opinion.

Big Game Watch

There are a few good national TV games this week with the Celtics and 76ers playing on Tuesday, followed by the Jazz and Warriors in the late game.

The following night Golden State has to go on the road to Portland, so that too may be a game to watch in case the Warriors rest some players to lengthen the All Star Break.

Those are the type of things you’ll need to be on the watch for as we head closer to the end of the week. There is a lot of incentive for tanking and contending teams to rest players this week, so while attacking opening lines is usually profitable, it may be wise to take a more cautious approach this week and let the market develop on some of these games.

Also, the non-TV games on Monday are much more appealing this week in terms of playoff position. The Nets and Raptors play early on Monday, while the Blazers and Thunder top off 30 minutes after that. However, the NBATV game that night is Houston playing host to Dallas, who is openly tanking this season to set up for 2019-2020.

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