Sunday's Top NBA Expert Picks: Jazz Get Reinforcements To End Week

We close out the week with some exciting hoops action. Here are our top NBA expert picks for Sunday's schedule.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for the Jan. 16 NBA games (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Sunday's NBA Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Top NBA Parlay Picks for Sunday

Top NBA Expert Spread Picks

Jazz -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

The Utah Jazz have a laundry list of factors working in their favor against the Denver Nuggets. The biggest one for bettors to note is that star center Rudy Gobert will make his return from health and safety protocols. Even if the Jazz limit his minutes, Gobert's presence will provide a huge lift, especially on defense.

Utah is also set to welcome back forward Rudy Gay from protocols. Now, the Jazz are nearly at full strength after beating Denver by six just 11 days ago despite not having Gobert in that matchup.

Though the Nuggets are coming off back-to-back blowout wins on their home floor, this will be their second game in as many days. After dropping a triple-double in 28 minutes on Saturday, it's fair to question how much Nikola Jokic will have in the tank against one of the top defensive teams in the NBA.

This point spread opened at Jazz -3.5 and has risen since. With several sportsbooks already moving the number to -5, bettors are wise to shop around to try to obtain any value they can.

Rockets +5.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

The Houston Rockets suffered a 12-point loss to these Sacramento Kings on Friday, but they should bounce back to cover in this spot.

Houston jumped out to a nine-point lead thanks to a 40-point first quarter in that matchup, but it quickly surrendered its advantage by scoring just 20 points in the second quarter. However, the Rockets should adjust to avoid a similar outcome here.

The Kings may try to get Richaun Holmes and Damian Jones back in action on Sunday, as both big men are listed as questionable. However, their extended absences will have significant consequences for their conditioning, and both players could struggle in the minutes they receive. I expect Houston's big men to capitalize if the Kings leave Holmes or Jones on the floor too long.

Perhaps most importantly, though, the Kings just aren't good enough to warrant a 5.5-point advantage. They rank just four spots ahead of Houston in offensive efficiency with a 2.5-basket differential. Similarly, they sit just three spots ahead of Houston in defensive efficiency with a two-basket differential.

The Rockets aren't great, but the books are giving them too many points not to take them here.

Top NBA Expert O/U Picks

Jazz-Nuggets Under 224 (-108 via FanDuel)

With only four NBA games scheduled on Sunday, bettors are somewhat limited in terms of available lines. But if we were able to find a nice edge on the point spread for the Jazz vs. Nuggets, why not do the same for the Over/Under?

Several shops have already moved this total down half a point to 223.5. Along with the favorable line, there are plenty of reasons to get involved with the under in this matchup.

We'll start with the Nuggets side, considering they topped 130 points in each of their last two games played. Though the offense has been on fire recently, Denver still plays at one of the slowest tempos in the NBA - an average of 99.5 possessions per game ranks as the fourth-fewest. The other factor to once again emphasize is that the Nuggets will be playing on zero days' rest tonight. Tired legs will impact shooting percentages and, theoretically, favor the Under.

As far as the Jazz are concerned, Gobert's return is a massive component to handicapping the total of Sunday's game and upcoming contests on the schedule. The difference in Utah's defensive play with Gobert on the floor compared to the alternative is startling.

The Jazz rank 13th in defensive efficiency this season, and though they actually lead the league in offensive efficiency, the Nuggets' plodding pace should help neutralize that ranking.

Rockets-Kings Under 240 (-115 via DraftKings)

The Rockets and Kings square off again just two days after their last meeting, and for Sunday's affair, DraftKings sets the total right on the line of the previous final score at 240.

Neither team specializes in defensive prowess. In fact, both fall within the bottom three in the NBA in scoring defense, but I'm looking for a slightly tighter game considering these teams just faced each other.

Meanwhile, neither side scores at an exceptional rate - they're both middle of the pack in the league in scoring. After running up a high total in the first of an odd two-game series, you should expect incrementally better defense in Round 2.

This total should fall closer to 230 points, making the Under a good value.

Warriors-Timberwolves Over 216 (-110 via FanDuel)

This total opened at 225 but crashed all the way down to this number. With both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green out, some bettors may expect the Golden State Warriors to suffer on offense, leading them to play the Under. That may be true, but Green's defensive contributions - and lack thereof in this one - actually seem far more significant.

Green ranks among the NBA's best in defensive RAPTOR rating and boasts an elite defensive rating of just 99, better than reigning Defensive Player of the Year Gobert. The Warriors haven't had Green in their last three games, and those have hit totals of 224, 217, and 234.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves' last three went for 264, 253, and 224. Their third-fastest pace almost certainly contributed to those high scores.

Curry's absence will weaken Golden State's offense considerably, but the Over is actually 2-1 when he sits. The Warriors should score just enough for the Timberwolves to carry this one over the top.

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