Top NBA Expert Picks for Wednesday: Nuggets Push Toward Division Title

Our NBA experts put together their top picks from a busy 11-game slate.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Wednesday's NBA matchups (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday's NBA Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Top NBA Parlay Picks for Wednesday

Top NBA Expert ATS Picks

Mavericks ML (-125 at DraftKings)

I will admit, this isn't my favorite bet in the world. After all, the Dallas Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back and have nothing to play for, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are desperately chasing the Toronto Raptors for that coveted sixth seed in the East.

With that said, there is a large disparity between these two sides. The Mavericks have gone 4-1 against the spread over the last five while Cleveland is now 0-5 ATS over that same span and lost Evan Mobley to injury on Monday night. With Mobley joining Jarrett Allen and Rajon Rondo on the bench, Cleveland is really going to be in a spot of bother on defense.

On top of that, this isn't an ordinary back-to-back for Dallas. The Mavs were able to rest all their key players on Tuesday night thanks to the ineptitude of the L.A. Lakers, meaning Luka Doncic should be fresh coming off a 30-minute outing.

I realize this is a pseudo must-win for Cleveland, but the Cavs don't have the goods to beat Dallas right now, even if the Mavericks are comfortably sitting in fourth place with a two-game cushion. - Ducey

Nuggets -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Don't look now, but the Northwest Division race has suddenly gotten extremely interesting. With the Utah Jazz blowing a big lead and losing last night, the Denver Nuggets have successfully pulled into a tie atop the division. Needless to say, Denver will have plenty of motivation for Wednesday's road tilt against the Indiana Pacers.

If Nikola Jokic does not win the NBA MVP Award, it will be the snub of the century. What the Joker means to the Nuggets from a statistical standpoint is unmatched by any player in the Association today. On Monday, Jokic compiled a triple-double line that included 26 points, 19 rebounds, and 11 assists.

When the reigning league MVP is on the court, Denver's net rating is +8.1. When he is on the bench, that rating plummets to -6.9. This season has seen the Nuggets forge on without the services of Jamal Murray the entire way. In addition, they have been without Michael Porter Jr. for the majority of the year. Jokic is literally dragging this team to a possible division title.

As for the Pacers, tank mode is in full swing. Injuries have decimated Indiana's depth chart, and it has shown in the team's recent performances. The Pacers' chances of staying competitive tonight aren't great. - John

Timberwolves +3 (-110 via FanDuel)

Toronto is 24-17 against the spread as a favorite this season and enters Wednesday's game against Minnesota having won three in a row. But the Raptors' ATS record as a favorite this year is misleading, as Toronto has done the bulk of its damage in those spots as road favorites, with a record of 9-3 ATS in those situations. As the home favorite, the Raptors are a less compelling 15-14 ATS.

Minnesota's recent stretch of three losses in its last four games shouldn't come as much of a concern when you consider the tough competition the Timberwolves have seen in those games. Minnesota split with the Mavericks while losing to the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics. All are at least marginally more capable teams than Toronto and are among the elite squads in the league this season. With the top offense in the NBA on a points per game basis, Minnesota has the scoring prowess to get after a team like Toronto and cover Wednesday's spread on the road. - Schaeffer

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Top NBA Expert O/U Picks

Heat-Celtics Over 213 (-110) at FanDuel

Have you seen the Miami Heat play defense lately? It's been tough to watch. Miami, the top seed in the East, has become incredibly complacent on that end of the floor and, as a result, has ranked 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions since March 21, when it started a 1-4 run.

While the Celtics don't have Robert Williams on the other end of this matchup due to injury, they're still a very capable team on offense, posting a 110.3 offensive rating in their non-Williams minutes. On top of that, with Williams off the floor this year, they're actually playing at a faster tempo with a 98.51 pace rating compared to a 97.5 with him on the court.

A little injection of pace coupled with a troubled Heat defense and a slightly weakened Celtics defense should get us to the Over. Boston has also hit the Over in its last six games. - Ducey

Heat-Celtics Over 213 (-110 via FanDuel)

From a statistical standpoint, recommending a play on the Over in a game between the Heat and Celtics is highly contrarian. Both teams have ridden stiff defensive play to the top of the Eastern Conference standings.

In terms of efficiency numbers, the Celtics have surpassed Golden State for the top mark in the NBA. Boston has surrendered only 103.6 points per 100 possessions on the season. Defense has keyed the team's second-half surge. Of course, the Heat are solid as well. Miami has allowed 106 points per 100 possessions defensively and continues to hold down a top-five efficiency ranking.

The real key to this handicap is the devastating injury news the Celtics got earlier this week. No, we're not talking about Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown who should both be back on the floor after missing the second game of a back-to-back. Rather, the loss of Williams to a torn meniscus is the injury of note.

Prior to suffering the injury, Williams ranked second in the NBA averaging 2.2 blocks per game. Boston is now going to have to forge ahead without its imposing rim protector. Considering how efficient the Heat are on the offensive end as well, they could be primed to take advantage of this in tonight's matchup. - John

Grizzlies-Spurs Over 233.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The San Antonio Spurs have gone on a bit of a scoring binge to get their offense into the top 10 in the NBA in points per game. The Memphis Grizzlies, of course, have been scoring all year and are tied with the Timberwolves for the best scoring average in the league at 115.4 points per game. It stands to reason that the points would be plentiful in Wednesday's matchup, but that's before you consider a notable absence on the Memphis side that could change the calculus.

Is Ja Morant's absence due to a knee injury going to limit the Grizzlies offensively? Apparently not. Morant has missed six of the team's last seven games. In the six games he's been out, the Grizzlies won each of them by double-digits. It's a wild stat, but the offense still goes even when Morant isn't there to run it. The Spurs have been scoring well enough lately to force the issue in what will likely be a losing effort on Wednesday, so I like the Over 233.5 at DraftKings in a total that isn't inflated enough to adequately represent the scoring punch these teams possess. - Schaeffer

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