Wednesday's Top NBA Expert Picks: Under the Popular Pick

It's a busy night in the Association with 13 games on tap. Check out our NBA expert betting picks.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Wednesday's NBA matchups (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Wednesday's NBA Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Top NBA Parlay Picks for Wednesday

Top NBA Expert Spread Picks

Hornets (+145)

Led by the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Boston Celtics have won five of their last six and climbed from the bottom of the East back into playoff contention. Getting there mostly via their defensive chops, they still lack the offensive capacity to make a run and I think we see that tonight versus the Charlotte Hornets.

Coming into tonight averaging 114.5 points per game, the Hornets have also won five of six as their defense has started to come around as well. A scary thought for the East.

We’ve seen this open at +4 and come down to +3.5, but I'm skipping both and grabbing a money line I think is undervalued as of this morning. - Covers

Thunder +7.5 (-115)

It was rather surprising to see the NBA betting spread open at a full six points for tonight’s matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. It is even more shocking to note that the line has since moved even further in the Spurs’ favor. Gregg Popovich's team is now laying -7 or -7.5 across the market. Aside from this game taking place on their home floor, the gap between these two teams simply is not that great.

The Thunder have been one of the most feisty teams as an ATS underdog recently and all season long. A 28-14-1 ATS mark on the season ranks second only to Cleveland for the best record against the number. Oklahoma City is as healthy as the team has been in some time and has played multiple quality opponents extremely tough over the past week. The Thunder's last five results in chronological order include back-to-back four-point losses to Denver and Washington, a road win over Brooklyn, a five-point home loss to Cleveland, and a two-point loss on the road against Dallas on Monday.

OKC's young star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has been on fire of late. The return of Luguentz Dort to the lineup cannot be overstated. The Thunder now have a reliable second scoring option behind SGA. The young supporting cast around them, including rookie Josh Giddey, continues to play hard. While the Spurs have also gotten healthier over the past few days after seeing several players sidelined in virus protocols, laying such a massive number with this team is far from appealing.

The Thunder and Spurs have matched up once so far this season. That game wound up as a five-point victory for the Thunder. Winning on the road will be much tougher, but backing OKC to continue its terrific run ATS against a below-average opponent is well worth it. - John

Mavericks -4 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks won the first meeting way back on Oct. 23 in Toronto, 103-95. Luka Doncic has two career triple-doubles in six games versus the Raptors.

Dallas enters having won nine of 10 (7-3 against the spread), a run that basically began when Doncic returned from injury. We faded the Raptors on Monday in Miami and they wilted late in a 104-99 loss, their third defeat in four games.

This is the fourth of a five-game trip for Toronto, so the players might be wearing down, and starting guard Gary Trent Jr. is in question again. He has missed the past five. An argument can be made to take Dallas at -180 on the moneyline as, while I believe the Mavericks win, four is a sticky number. - Jordan

Top NBA Expert O/U Picks

Cavaliers-Bulls Under 216 (-110)

Talk about things moving, this total opened as high as 218.5 before plummeting to where it rests now; and it might not be done yet. Not only are the Cavaliers one of the best defensive teams in the league, but they'll be going against a Chicago Bulls team that's reeling from injuries.

Already missing starting point guard Lonzo Ball, the Bulls must now adjust to life without their second-leading scorer in Zach Lavine who is out tonight with a knee injury. Look for both injuries and the Cavaliers propensity for defense to point towards an Under in this one. - Covers

Rockets-Jazz Under 231.5 (-115)

We're going back to the well with yet another Under prediction for a game involving the Utah Jazz. The opening total of 235 for tonight's home game against the Houston Rockets has shot down to a consensus line of 230.5. Thus, bettors are able to score a full point of value by playing Under 231.5 at DraftKings. As has been the case the past few times we've rationalized the Under, the handicap focuses on the Jazz.

The difference in Utah's play on the defensive end with center Rudy Gobert on the floor compared to without him is night and day. In addition to this being Gobert's third game back, the Jazz will also be playing without Donovan Mitchell, who has a concussion. Not only does this set up as a positive outlook for Utah defensively, but the absence of their top scorer also figures to negatively impact the offense to a certain extent.

That being said, it should be noted that the opposing Rockets are the worst team in the NBA on the defensive end. Houston ranks dead last in points allowed per game (116.7) and defensive efficiency (112.7 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Rockets also average the third-most possessions per game of any team. However, Houston's fast pace of play and horrendous defense is likely to be negated somewhat by the Jazz's side of the equation in tonight's matchup.

One final point to keep in mind is that the total for Utah's game against the L.A. Lakers on Monday was set at 230.5. The Lakers average an even faster pace of play than the Rockets and are also a bad defensive team. After that Under wound up as a rocking-chair winner (196 total points scored), it makes sense to pursue a similar route for tonight's game. - John

Timberwolves-Hawks Under 235.5 (-110)

This is the highest total on the board and already has risen as much as three points at some books. It's the second of a back-to-back for the Minnesota Timberwolves after they won 112-110 at New York on Tuesday. Teams tend to struggle with their shot in a second game in 24 hours.

Combined, these teams average 220.9 points per game and allow 221.1. The Hawks remain without starters Bogdan Bogdanovic (12 ppg) and Clint Capela (11.8 ppg). Various models forecast about 223 points scored and this seems crazy high. Both teams could score 116 points and we still win. - Jordan

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