Easy Like Sunday Afternoon: Go ‘Under’ With Sixers-Bucks

Saturday, March 16, 2019 11:57 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 16, 2019 11:57 PM UTC

Playing on Sunday afternoon should help the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks go ‘under’ the 231-point total on the NBA odds board.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 15:</strong><br />20-17-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 29-13 Totals</em></p><h2 style="text-align:center">Philadelphia (44-25 SU, 32-37 ATS) at Milwaukee (52-17 SU, 41-25-3 ATS)</h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC<br />Free NBA Pick: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/philadelphia-76ers-vs-milwaukee-bucks-3568927/odds/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Under</a><br />Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4435&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">Pinnacle</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3568927, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,19,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>These betting angles with the total don’t always work out. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/stick-with-under-sacramento-kings-visit-philadelphia-seventy-sixers/89213/" target="_blank" title="Stick With ‘Under’ When Tired Kings Visit Sixers">We had the ‘under’</a> for Friday’s game between the Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers, in part because Sacramento were playing on zero days of rest. It almost worked: Philadelphia won 123-144 to slip ‘over’ the 233-point total. <em>Shazbot.</em><br /><br />We’re going to try the ‘under’ again for Sunday’s tilt between the 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks, but this time, the angle is different: It’s an afternoon game, and more often than not, these games don’t generate a lot of scoring. You may recall <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/snoozing-in-south-philly-take-under-for-pacers-sixers/89122/" target="_blank" title="Snoozing In South Philly: Take ‘Under’ For Pacers-Sixers">last Sunday’s snoozer</a> between Philadelphia and the Indiana Pacers, which the Sixers won 106-89 (Under 218). We’re looking for more of the same, except this time, we’ve got a tasty 231-point total on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">NBA odds board</a> to work with.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Banana Splits</strong></h2><p>Early indications are we’ve made the sharp choice. That total opened at 231.5, and has fallen as low as 230.5 at some locations, so the early money appears to be on the ‘under.’ As for the spread, the Bucks are favored by 6.5 points at home, and that’s exactly where the stat nerds at FiveThirtyEight have this game projected, so let’s keep the faith with our afternoon angle.<br /><br />Let’s also not forget that the ‘under’ was on an 8-0 streak for Philly before they hosted Sacramento. We did advise a small bet in that case, since the Kings had the ‘over’ at 19-13-1 on the road – make it 20-13-1 now. These splits are important; for Sunday’s matchup, the Sixers will be in Milwaukee, where the Bucks have the ‘over’ at 17-15 compared to 17-20 in away games, so again, we’re going to recommend a small wager. But if you want to put this game in your <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">NBA picks</a>, the ‘under’ is where we think any profit margin will be.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Brogdon has had plantar fascia pain in his right foot during this season. I would guess that's got something to do with this.&lt;/p&gt;— Matt Velazquez (@Matt_Velazquez) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Matt_Velazquez/status/1106717787983171587?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;16 de março de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Heel Turn</strong></h2><p>There’s also an injury of note that might help us out. Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon (plus-2.0 OBPM, minus-0.3 DBPM) left Friday’s game with a sore right heel and did not return. Brogdon’s status for Sunday is uncertain at press time, but if he misses this game – which seems reasonable as we go to press – that’s more minutes for Pat Connaughton (0.0 OBPM, plus-0.9 DBPM).</p><p>We should also mention that Boban Marjanovic (plus-1.6 OBPM, plus-1.6 DBPM) returned to the Sixers lineup last Tuesday after missing six games with a knee injury. This should be a very entertaining clash of two Eastern Conference contenders with a whole lot of beef on their respective rosters, so enjoy the show, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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