Eastern Conference First Round Offers More NBA Betting Value & Entertainment Than The West

Kevin Stott

Friday, April 15, 2016 7:12 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 15, 2016 7:12 PM UTC

Almost anything is possible in the wild, wild East. Let’s looks at many numbers and offer up a couple NBA picks for Sunday based on one of these specific Trends.

Eastern Conference First Round Will Be Much Entertaining, Probably Much Tighter Than the Western Conference
The 2016 NBA Playoffs tip off on Saturday and everyone agrees that the four First Round series in the Eastern Conference will be much more close and last longer than the four First Round series in the Western Conference where we may actually end up seeing a couple of Sweeps in this opening round with Stephen Curry and the the #1-seed Golden State Warriors facing the #8-seed Houston Rockets, Kawhi Leonard the #2-seed San Antonio Spurs drawing the the #7-seed Memphis Grizzlies (L4, 1-9 SU L10), and Chris Paul and the #3-seed Los Angeles Clippers getting the #6-seeded Dallas Mavericks, although the Mavs have been hot of late and could definitely upset the Clippers if everything goes right.

In this assignment, we’re going to look at some Trends for the eight teams in the Postseason in the Eastern Conference both individually and against their First Round opponents and then also look back a couple of years and see how the actual seeds (No’s 1-8) have fared (SU) in this round.

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Detroit Pistons
Game 1—Sunday, April 17, 2016 (ABC, 3:05 p.m. EDT/12:05 p.m. PDT)
NBA odds: Cavaliers -10½, 201 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Cleveland Cavaliers: 57-25 SU, 37-42-3 ATS, 33-8 SU Home, 41-41-0 O/U
Detroit Pistons: 44-38 SU, 42-38-2 ATS, 26-15 SU Home, 42-40-0 O/U

Pistons: 23-14-2 ATS Home (61.5%) >Best Mark in NBA
Pistons: 7-1-1 ATS L9 after Opponent allows 100+ in Previous Game
Pistons: 5-1 ATS L6 vs Team with Winning Percentage Above .600
Pistons: 4-1 ATS L5 After Allowing 100+ More in Previous Game
Pistons: 4-1 L5 ATS L5 vs NBA Central
Pistons: 1-4 ATS L5 Following SU Win, 1-4 ATS L5 Following ATS win
>Pistons: 0-4 ATS L4 Conference Quarterfinals (First Round)
>Cavaliers: 15-6 L21 Conference Quarterfinal Games (First Round)
Cavaliers: 26-53-1 L80 vs NBA Central
Cavaliers: 4-9 ATS L13 vs Team With Losing Record
Cavaliers: 4-1 ATS L5 Playing on 3+ Days Rest
Cavaliers: 4-1 ATS L5 When Opponent Allows 100+ Points Previous Game
Cavaliers: 4-1 ATS L5 When Opponent Scores 100+ Points Previous Game
Total: Under 4-0 L4 Pistons on 3+ Days Rest
Total: Under 4-1 L5 Pistons vs NBA Central, 4-1 Following Pistons ATS Win
Total: Over 73-30-3 L106 Cavaliers Sunday
Total: Under 54-26 L80 Cavaliers When Opponent Allows 100+ Previous Game
Total: Under 27-8 L35 Cavaliers vs Team with Winning Record
Total: Over 5-2 ATS L7 Overall, 5-2 ATS L7 vs Eastern Conference


(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (7) Indiana Pacers
Game 1—Saturday, April 16, 2016 (ESPN, 12:30 p.m. EDT/9:30 a.m. PDT)
Odds: Raptors -6.5, 194 (Heritage)

Indiana Pacers: 45-37 SU, 41-40-1 ATS, 19-22 SU Away, 37-45-0 O/U
Toronto Raptors: 56-26 SU, 45-37-0 ATS, 32-9 SU Home, 42-39-1 O/U

Pacers W3 ATS
Pacers: 8-17-1 L26 Saturday
Pacers: 6-14-1 ATS L21 After SU Win
Pacers: 2-6 L8 After ATS Win
Pacers: 15-3 ATS L18 2+Days Rest
Pacers: 4-1 ATS L5 Overall, 4-1 ATS L5 vs Eastern Conference
Raptors: 0-4 ATS L4 Home
Raptors: 6-1 ATS L7 Saturday
Raptors: 5-2 ATS Overall, 5-2 ATS L7 vs Eastern Conference
>Raptors: 0-7 ATS L7 Conference Quarterfinal (First Round) Games
Raptors: 2-5 ATS L7 After SU Win
>Series: Pacers 19-40-0 ATS L59 Meetings
Series: Over 6-2 ATS L8 Meetings
>Series: Toronto 9-1 ATS L10, Toronto 9-1 SU L10
Series: Over 6-3 ATS L9
Total: Under 9-3 ATS L12 Pacers vs Eastern Conference
Total: Over 23-9 ATS L32 Pacers vs NBA Central
Total: Over 4-0 L4 Pacers Saturday
Total: Under 7-1 ATS L8 Pacers After SU Win
Total: Under 13-6 ATS L19 Pacers vs Eastern Conference
Totals: Under 5-0 L5, 8-3 L11 Raptors After SU Win
Totals: Under 8-3 L11 Raptors After Scoring 100+ Points
Totals: Over 4-1 L5 Raptors Conference Quarterfinals
Total: Under 11-6 ATS L17 Pacers Overall
Unique—4½ Point Spread: Pacers Favored By: 7-0, Dog 2-0, Raptors Dog 0-4
Unique—5½ Point Spread: Pacers Favored By: 1-3, Dog 0-4, Raptors Favorite 4-1


(3) Miami Heat vs. (6) Charlotte Hornets
Game 1—Sunday, April 17, 2016 (TNT, 5:35 p.m. EDT/2:35 p.m. PDT)
Odds: Heat -4½, 201½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Miami Heat: 48-34 SU, 42-38-1 ATS, 28-13 SU Home, 34-47-1 O/U
Charlotte Hornets: 48-34 SU, 43-38-1 ATS, 32-9 SU Away, 40-40-2 O/U

>Heat: 5-1 ATS L6 Conference Quarterfinal (First Round)
>Heat: 6-0 ATS L6 Home
Heat: 5-0 ATS L5 vs team with Losing Record
Heat: 19-7 ATS L26 vs Eastern Conference
Heat: 9-3 ATS L12 vs Southeast Division
>Hornets: 1-6 ATS L7 Conference Quarterfinals (First Round)
Hornets: 1-4 ATS L5 Following SU Win
Hornets: 1-5 ATS L6 After Scoring 100+
Hornets: 2-5 ATS L7 Sunday, 2-5 ATS L7 Following SU Win
Hornets: 3-7 ATS L10 on 3+ Days Rest
Hornets: 10-4 ATS L14 Following SU Win of 10+
Hornets: 35-16-2 L 53 Sunday Games
Total: Over 10-4 L14 Hornets Following SU Win of 10+
Total: Over 4-1 L5 Hornets Road, 4-1 L5 Hornets After Allowing 100+ Previous Game
Total: Over 5-0 L5 Hornets Overall, 5-0 L5 vs Eastern Conference
Total: Over 4-0 L4 Hornets Following SU win
Total: Under 8-3 L11 Heat Overall
Total: Under 18-7-1 L26 Heat with 3+ Days Rest
Total: Under 2-17 L28 Heat Sunday


(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
Game 1—Saturday, April 16, 2016 (ESPN, 7:05 p.m. EDT/4:05 p.m. PDT)
Odds: Celtics -5, 209½ (Pinnacle)

Atlanta Hawks: 48-34 SU, 42-38-1 ATS, 21-20 SU Away, 34-47-1 O/U
Boston Celtics: 48-34 SU, 43-38-1 ATS, 28-13 SU Home, 40-40-2 O/U

Hawks: 5-1 ATS L6 Playing on 2+ Days Rest
Hawks: 4-1 ATS L5 Saturday
Hawks: 2-6 ATS L8 Overall
Hawks: 11-5 ATS L16 Home vs Teams with Losing Record
Hawks: 2-5 ATS L7 vs Eastern Conference
Hawks: 5-2 ATS L7 vs Atlantic Division
Hawks: 1-4 ATS L5 After ATS Loss, 1-4 ATS L5 After SU Loss
Hawks: 2-5 ATS L7 Overall
Hawks: 0-5 ATS After Allowing 100+ Previous Game
Celtics: 5-2 ATS L7 vs Eastern Conference
Celtics: 2-5 ATS L7 Following SU win
Celtics: 1-5 ATS L5 Following SU Win, 1-5 ATS L6 Road Games
Celtics: 15-7 ATS L22 Saturday
Celtics: 0-7 ATS L7 Playing on 2+ Days Rest
Celtics: 2-14 ATS L16 Road Playing Team with Home Winning Percentage .600+
>Celtics: 1-4 ATS L5 Conference Quarterfinal (First Round)
Celtics: 3-14 ATS L17 Road Team with Winning Record at Home
Celtics: 3-7 ATS L10 Overall, 3-7 ATS L10 vs Team with SU Winning Record
Celtics: 2-5 ATS L7 Following ATS Win
Total: Under 4-1 L5 Hawks Overall
Total: Under 7-3 L10 Hawks After SU Loss
Total: Under 5-1 L6 L6 Hawks vs Team with Winning Record
Total: Under 5-2 L7 Celtics When Opponent Allows 100+ in Previous Game
Total: Over 9-3 L12 Hawks vs Atlantic Division
>Total: Under 16-5 L21 Celtics Conference Quarterfinals Games (First Round)
Total: Over 7-3 L10 Celtics vs Team with Winning Record
Total: Under 11-3 L14 Celtics Following SU Win
Total: Under 9-4 L13 Hawks Home


NBA Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs Seed SU Results Last 5 Seasons
2015—No. 1 (Hawks over Nets, 4-2), No. 2 (Cavaliers over Celtics, 4-0), No. 3 (Bulls over Bucks, 4-1), No. 5 (Wizards upset Raptors, 4-0) Seeds advanced from Conference Quarters.
2014—No. 1 (Pacers over Hawks, 4-3), No. 2 (Heat over Hornets, 4-0), No. 6 (Nets upset Raptors, 4-3), No. 5 (Wizards upset Bulls, 4-1) Seeds advanced from Conference Quarterfinals.
2013—No. 1 (Heat over Bucks, 4-0), No. 2 Knicks over Celtics, 4-2), No. 3 Pacers over Hawks, 4-2) and No. 5 (Bulls upset Nets, 4-3) Seeds all advanced from the Conference Quarterfinals.
2012—No. 8 (76ers upset No. 1-Seed Bulls, 4-2!), No. 2 (Heat over Knicks, 4-1), No. 3 (Pacers over Magic, 4-1), No. 4 (Celtics over Hawks, 4-2) Seeds advanced from Conference Quarters.
2011—No. 1 (Bulls over Pacers, 4-1), No. 2 (Heat over 76ers, 4-1), No. 3 (Celtics over Knicks, 4-0) and No. 5 (Hawks upset Magic, 4-2) Seeds all advanced from Conference Quarterfinals.
>There’s been at least one seed Upset in the L5 years in the Eastern Conference First Round.


Conclusions: Explanation of Pick, Thoughts on These Trends and Their Relevance
The more important seeming Trends and streaks above have the Arrow (>) before them, and, as you can see, some of these teams are really good (ATS) in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs and other aren’t. So, we have two NBA picks based on that specific Trend—recent ATS in Conference Quarterfinals—offered up here based on a combination of the Trends above. First up on Sunday, it’s LeBron James and the Cavaliers who are the call despite the double-digit Point Spread as Cleveland is an impressive 15-6 in its L21 (71.4%) First Round NBA Playoff games while the still-caterpillar-stage Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their L4 (0%) Conference Quarterfinals games.

Next up on Sunday, it seems Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat laying the modest number is the pick with the Heat 5-1 ATS in their L6 Conference Quarterfinal games while the Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their L7 Conference Quarterfinals dribbles. And Miami has W6 ATS at Home at American Airlines Arena in Miami. And I have been told by a Greater Authority that the UFO’s we see around planet Earth nightly are coming from around the Milky Way Galaxy and beyond and are simply here to try to tell the Young to turn the Bass down on their bleeding car stereos.

NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS FIRST ROUND GAME 1 SUNDAY TRENDS PICKS: Cavaliers -10½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Heat -4½ (Pinnacle)


comment here