Early Christmas Treat: Take Spurs & 'Over' as Your NBA Pick vs. Timberwolves

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 12:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2015 12:27 PM UTC

Our handicapper has an early Christmas present for bettors this year, his NBA pick following two strong performance trends between the Spurs and Timberwolves for Wednesday night.

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NBA Picks: Spurs -10.5 & Over 197
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Spurs vs.Timberwolves
In Christmas eve-eve NBA action we have the red hot 24-5 San Antonio Spurs traveling to the frozen north to take on the 11-17 Minnesota Timberwolves. With the dichotomy in season records thus far the Spurs have been listed as heavy road favorites – opening as a 9.5-point favorite on the NBA odds at multiple sites. The O/U total is currently listed at either 198 or 198.5, with Heritage taking the Over lean so far.


Minnesota Twolves
Minnesota is coming off of a disappointing 113-99 loss at Boston on Monday night, a game in which they let former Gonzaga star, Kelly Olynyk, lead the Celtics with 19 points. Boston hit 12 3-pointers in that game, including six of their first seven. The Timberwolves will have to avoid letting the Spurs get that hot of a start on Wednesday should they stand a chance to keep it close.

The Timberwolves were led Monday by their duo of lottery picks, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Wiggins was able to find the free throw line often, hitting 9 of 10 free throws in route to a 26-point performance. Towns was also successful in drawing fouls and was a perfect 9-9 from the line on the way to a 25-point night. Overall, the Timberwolves found the stripe 32 times as compared to the Celtics 16 times. But as stated above, the 3-point ball killed Minnesota, and they didn’t help their own cause by going 2-13 from downtown.


San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio kept things rolling at home in their last game, also on Monday night, as they moved to 16-0 at home after beating the Pacers 106-92. Indiana was able to keep it close until about halfway through the 4th quarter, when the Spurs pulled away to finally win comfortably by 14 points and cover the 8-point spread. Kawli Leanord led the Spurs with 24 points in the game, but was just 1-6 from 3-point range.  However, it was Leanord’s effort on defense that was most excellent, as he was able to hold Pacers star Paul George to 1-14 from the field.

The recent form in this series heavily favors the Spurs, as they are 20-9 ATS this season and 6-1 SU in the last seven games when playing Minnesota. The Spurs have also covered the spread in the last four meetings with Minnesota, even as a 10 or more-point favorite. The scores have been quite lopsided with 26-point and 15-point wins by the Spurs last season. The last four meetings between these two teams have also gone over the listed total.


Final Analysis
As I revisit this line we’ve seen some early line movement in favor of the Spurs. At Pinnacle the line is 10.5 points in favor of San Antonio as early bettors have piled on the road favorite.

San Antonio is also exhibiting some other trends this season that should be considered. Namely, that the Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win, and are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one day’s rest. Furthermore, the over has cashed 5-0 in the last five games the Spurs have played on 1 day’s rest and the over is 5-0 in the last five games against teams with a losing record.

Minnesota has not been a good home dog lately, with a 30% ATS winning record in their last 50 home games.

Since I’d like to get Christmas started a little early this year, I believe the best bang for your buck in this game is to parlay both the Spurs at -10.5 and the over of 196.5. That definitely follows the recent trends at hand, and the Spurs have done nothing to deserve anything but confidence from the NBA handicapper this year. Parlay the Spurs at -10.5 and the Over of 198 as one of your NBA Picks.

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