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NBA Draft Exact Order Top 5 Picks: Odds, Payouts for Most Likely Scenarios

NBA Draft Exact Order Top 5 Picks: Odds, Payouts for Most Likely Scenarios
Paolo Banchero #5 of the Duke Blue Devils. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve scoured major sports betting sites for exact order prop picks for the 2022 NBA Draft and while we came up empty-handed, we’ve found the best odds at each position, determining the best payouts for each scenario.

The top two picks for Thursday’s draft are still in question and Nos. 3 and 4 seem like virtual locks, but we can get some value from the No. 5 slot.

Here are our top picks for the exact order of the top five selections in Thursday’s NBA draft.

NBA Draft Exact Order Top 5 Picks

First pick: Smith or Holmgren?

Auburn star Jabari Smith was considered the clear favorite to go first overall after the Orlando Magic won the draft lottery, but he’s no longer a lock in the final days before the draft. The Magic brought in Chet Holmgren for a workout on June 17 and some reports indicate Orlando favors the Gonzaga big man over the Auburn forward. The odds still favor Smith, but they’re shrinking.

Smith’s best odds to go No. 1 can be found at PointsBet for -165. If you like him to go first, the next logical wager is Holmgren to go No. 2, which can be found at -159 on PointsBet. Flip those selections around for plus-money odds on both players.

Bank on Banchero at No. 3

At this point, it’s a foregone conclusion that Paolo Banchero of Duke will be selected third by the Houston Rockets. No matter how the first two picks play out, Banchero will be the best player remaining and head to Houston. The Rockets recently traded big man Christian Wood to the Dallas Mavericks in order to give promising rookie Alperen Sengun a featured role. Any notion of Houston trading up for Chet Holmgren seems moot after that move.

The two picks before and the two picks after Banchero have seen their odds fluctuate throughout the pre-draft process, and there are no locked-in favorites anymore. Consider how short his odds are at -550 (as high as -1000 at some books), and you get a pretty good idea of where he’ll be drafted.

Ivey at No. 4

Sure, the Sacramento Kings could draft Purdue star Jaden Ivey with this pick, but there’s a significant chance they move it to a team in need of a point guard, such as the Washington Wizards, New York Knicks, or even the Indiana Pacers. Sacramento could pivot and take someone like Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe, or Dyson Daniels, but none of those selections make much sense considering what they could get in return for the No. 4 pick.

Let’s say the pick is traded, teams aren’t moving up for any of the three players mentioned above. They’re moving up to acquire Ivey. He seems like a sure bet to go fourth.

Value to be Had at No. 5

The first four picks of Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, and Ivey are in, which leaves us with an array of options. Murray is the odds-on favorite to be selected fifth, and the Iowa forward may be a seamless fit if Detroit moves Jerami Grant prior to the season. We can take a chance on Ivey here if we think the Kings pull a sneaky, and his odds are +350.

There’s better value than that with players like Sharpe (+550), Ben Mathurin (+650), and Daniels (+800), but if Ivey goes fifth, that means we can take Murray at No. 4 at +300. Sharpe is still an unknown after not playing a minute for Kentucky last season, while Mathurin and Daniels continue to rise up draft boards. This is the only real spot in the top five that can offer tremendous value.


Banchero is the safest selection of any player in the top five, so make sure to lock him down at No. 3. Ivey is close behind, so I’d bet on him going No. 4.

For the first two picks, I lean Smith-Holmgren, but the best payout comes from Holmgren-Smith with both at plus money.

At No. 5, pay attention to the latest buzz and intel around the league in the final leadup to the draft. Daniels has picked up a lot of steam in recent weeks, and his +800 odds are longer than any of Murray, Sharpe, or Mathurin. The best bet is to take a swing on the fifth pick after betting the first four (with your preferred order at 1-2) because the payout is comparable if not better than taking 1-3, then Murray, then Ivey.

Here are the odds for all of the situations mentioned above, with a one-unit wager on each:

Where to Bet on NBA Draft Exact Order Picks

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NBA Draft exact order picks made on 6/20/2022 at 7:59 a.m. ET.