2022 NBA Draft 1st Overall Pick: Value Beyond Jabari Smith?

With the 2022 NBA Draft approaching, we take stock of the odds and best bets to be the first overall pick.

The 2022 NBA Draft takes place on June 23 and all eyes are on the top three picks. There's a pretty clear consensus on who they'll be, but the exact order in which they'll hear their names called is still a bit of a mystery.

There's Jabari Smith, the sharpshooting forward from Auburn who's been the favorite since Orlando won the lottery nearly a month ago. Then there's Chet Holmgren, the so-called "unicorn" out of Gonzaga who made a name for himself as a lanky rim protector with handles and range, but whose slight 195-pound frame may give GMs pause. Finally, there's Paolo Banchero, the do-it-all Duke product who's drawn comparisons to Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum.

Where can we find value when betting on the NBA Draft's top selection?

2022 NBA Draft 1st Overall Pick Best Bets

Jabari Smith No. 1 (-110 via PointsBet)Chet Holmgren No. 1 (+140 via DraftKings)Chet Holmgren No. 2 (+100 via PointsBet)Jabari Smith No. 2 (+175 via DraftKings)Paolo Banchero No. 2 (+600 via PointsBet)Chet Holmgren No. 3 (+1200 via PointsBet)

2022 NBA Draft 1st Overall Pick Predictions

Jabari Smith

Smith remains the clear favorite in the final days before the draft, but his odds have grown longer, while Holmgren's have grown shorter over the last couple of weeks. Smith's odds were as short as -400 at some books in early June, when betting him to go No. 1 presented no value. If you're still of the mindset that Orlando will take their golden boy at the top of the draft, now's your time to bet, especially after Smith impressed in last week's pre-draft workout with the Magic.

Bettors can get Smith at -140 on FanDuel and -190 on DraftKings, but his best odds are at PointsBet, where he's -110. Smith is +110 to go second on PointsBet and +175 on DraftKings, so there's some value in betting him as the second overall pick for those who believe the Magic go Holmgren. There's a pretty clear understanding that the selections will be Smith and Holmgren in some order at the top, so it's best not to wager on Smith as the third pick. His odds to be selected by Houston there (+1600 PointsBet, +2000 DraftKings) are long for a reason.

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Chet Holmgren

NBA teams have done their due diligence on the top prospects, so it's natural that there's some line movement on NBA draft player props the week before the event. Holmgren's plus-money odds have diminished recently, but he can be found at +120 on FanDuel, +140 on DraftKings, and -110 on PointsBet.

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The Magic will work out Holmgren before the draft, and if they like what they see, he could leapfrog Smith. Orlando has a history of taking long and lanky forwards and bigs, and a quick glance at the Magic's roster reveals recent selections in Mo Bamba and Jonathan Isaac who fit that mold. Holmgren has an in-house connection with Jalen Suggs (the Magic's fifth overall pick in 2021), as the two played high school ball together at Minnehaha Academy in Minneapolis.

Holmgren had a lot of buzz as the top prospect in this draft class, so it wouldn't be shocking if he went ahead of Smith. If you're not keen on betting him at No. 1, he's -225 to go second on DraftKings and a juicy +100 on PointsBet. If you think the Oklahoma City Thunder throw a curveball and take Jaden Ivey or Banchero at second, you can get Holmgren at +700 to go third on DraftKings and +1200 on PointsBet.

Paolo Banchero

Banchero to the Rockets at No. 3 is nearly a done deal, right? That's what the books are predicting, and that's the general consensus in NBA circles. Banchero recently worked out in Memphis with Rockets staff in attendance, and a viral photo of Banchero having dinner with Rockets GM Rafael Stone has made its rounds on social media and beyond.

Banchero's odds to go first overall are +1200 or longer at FanDuel, DraftKings, and PointsBet, and betting on him going third is essentially throwing away money. His odds are -500 on both DraftKings and PointsBet, meaning you'd have to bet $500 just to win $100. No thanks. The sweet spot is Banchero's odds to go No. 2. The consensus is a combination of Smith and Holmgren with the first two selections, but Oklahoma City remains a wild card. There's been no confirmation, but some speculative evidence points to Banchero working out with the Thunder recently. His odds to go second are set at +350 on DraftKings and +600 on PointsBet, which makes him a value selection there.

Others

The favorites to go fourth to sixth overall are Shaedon Sharpe, Jaden Ivey, and Keegan Murray, but just like the top-three picks, there's no definitive order.

All eight betting options outside of Smith, Holmgren, and Banchero are +20000 on FanDuel and PointsBet to go first overall, while Ivey and Sharpe are +10000 on DraftKings. Ivey, the athletic Purdue guard with comps to Ja Morant and Russell Westbrook, is an intriguing betting option to go inside the top three, with Sam Presti (the man who drafted Westbrook in 2008) still at the helm of the Thunder who pick second. None of Ivey, Sharpe, or Murray have a shot at going No. 1.

Where to Bet on 2022 NBA Draft Picks

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2022 NBA Draft picks made on 6/15/2022 at 8:31 a.m. ET.