It’s been a stupid few days of prop picks from yours truly, but I am back at it once more with two NBA prop picks for tonight’s closeout Game 6 between the Thunder and Spurs!
Will Steven Adams Record a Double-Double?
Steven Adams has been crucial to this team this postseason. Everyone including me chastises the Thunder for what little they got for James Harden in their trade to Houston, but one of those draft picks turned into Steven Adams, and he has been almost invaluable. Serge Ibaka has lost a lot of his minutes to Adams and Enes Kanter, and both big men for the Thunder are poised for big games.
However, Adams’ rebounding and defense has been crucial to this team, and could be one of the things that gets them to, or even past the Warriors to the NBA Finals. Adams has reached double figures in rebounds in every game this season, and in six games in a row. He is averaging nearly 12 rebounds per game in his last six games, and he has a double double in four of those last six games, so tonight all boils down to points.
He is getting a lot more looks on offense too. Whether it be offensive rebounds or a few looks in the post, he has eight shot attempts and 12 free throw attempts in his last two games. If the Thunder keep handing the ball off to him on the pick and roll, while keeping Kanter in the game to help stretch the floor some, Adams should have no issue getting a double-double here. He is easily averaging a double-double in his per-36 averages this postseason, and his rebounding rates have been good enough to almost guarantee he has double figure rebounds if het continues getting the minutes in this one.The NBA odds on Adams is also at excellent value, so be sure not to miss out on this pick.
My NBA Pick: Yes (+125) at Bovada
LaMarcus Aldridge O/U 23.5 points
Speaking of Adams, since the Thunder have been giving up him more minutes, along with playing Kanter, the Spurs have not enjoyed the same successes down low. LaMarcus Aldridge has been the biggest loser. In his first two games of this series, he averages nearly 40 points per game, but in the last three games he is barely averaging more than 20 points, but he is shooting just 36 percent in his last three games.
Adams’ defense has been a big reason why. This postseason, players that Adams defends are shooting just 44 percent from the floor, which is three percentage points lower than those players averages. Plus, they are only shooting 57 percent inside three feet, which is close to five percentage points lower that their averages, and they are shooting only 43.4 percent on two point attempts.
Aldridge has a lot to lose when Adams and Kanter are on the floor together. Even though Serge Ibaka hasn’t been bad on defense, when Kanter comes in, Adams tends to switch over and defend Aldridge. If that happens down the stretch, I expect Aldridge to be shut down and fall below 23 points in this prop NBA pick.
My NBA Pick: UNDER 23.5 points (-105) at Bovada