Doncic’s Knee Gives Nuggets Legs Versus Visiting Mavs

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 6:38 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 13, 2019 6:38 PM UTC

Luka Doncic and his sore left knee make the home team a tasty NBA pick when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Denver Nuggets this Thursday.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 12: 19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 27-11 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Dallas (27-40 SU, 37-29-1 ATS) at Denver (44-22 SU, 36-30 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Nuggets ATS</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=5dimes" target="_blank">5Dimes</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3568886, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,999998,93,19,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>I love it when a plan comes together. Luka Doncic ended up playing for the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday, despite his sore left knee, and he helped the ‘under’ <a href="">pay us out</a> when the Mavericks lost 112-105 to the San Antonio Spurs (–3.5 away, Under 219). Doncic scored just 12 points on 5-of-18 from the floor, including 1-of-7 from downtown. Delightful.<br /><br />We could pound the ‘under’ again this Thursday when the Mavs visit the Denver Nuggets (Under 36-29-1). But it’s not ideal, since the Nuggets have the ‘over’ at 18-16 when they play at home, even if the ‘under’ is 4-1 in their five games at the Pepsi Center since the All-Star break. The <a href="">NBA odds</a> have just opened at press time with Denver laying 10.5 points and a total of 220. This will take some thought.</p><h2>Yes, I Think You’ve Seen Him Before</h2><p>As lovely as the Doncic (plus-2.6 OBPM, plus-0.9 DBPM) angle is for our ‘under’ purposes, there are other things going on that don’t quite line up with our preferred <a href="">NBA pick</a>. It’s not just the Nuggets who have an unfavorable home/away split; total-wise, the Mavs are neutral on the road at 16-16-1, while driving the ‘under’ to a 21-13 record in Big D. Humbug.<br /><br />There’s another injury of note, as well: Denver wing Torrey Craig (minus-1.3 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM) hurt his left shoulder during garbage time in Tuesday’s 133-107 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 227). That game snapped an eight-game streak for the ‘under,’ and while Craig is listed as day-to-day, he could be out for a while – that was a nasty injury, possibly a separation.</p><h2>Torrey Pines</h2><p>It seems the Nuggets have been dealing with injuries all year. Gary Harris (minus-0.1 OBPM, minus-1.3 DBPM) has played nine mostly unimpressive games since his return from a tender groin, and has started each of the last five – he’ll presumably get more minutes on Thursday with Craig on the shelf. Isaiah Thomas (minus-4.3 OBPM, minus-4.4 DBPM in nine games) has been taken out of the mix, clearly not anywhere near recovered from his hip issues, so again, more minutes for Harris.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The Denver Nuggets plan on moving Isaiah Thomas out of the rotation, per Head Coach Mike Malone &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— NBA Central (@TheNBACentral) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;March 13, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>Looks like we’re going to eat some chalk instead. The Nuggets are 23-11 ATS at home this year, and the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight project them as 14.5-point favorites for Thursday’s game, considerably more points than Denver are laying in real life. They did beat the Mavericks 114-104 on February 22 as 7-point road faves, in a game that both Doncic and Craig sat out. And the Mavs are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen games. We’ll buy that for a half-dollar.</p>
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