Don't Overthink Knicks vs. Pacers NBA Picks: Indiana to Cover -13.5

Darin Zank

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 2:46 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2015 2:46 PM GMT

Indiana is trying to make a run toward the playoffs, while NY is just praying for a quick end to the misery of this season. The Pacers are favored by two touchdowns for their home game with the Knicks.

Knicks-Pacers Betting Odds
Most of the NBA Odds market opened this game with Indiana favored by 13 points, the total offered at right around 190. In the early action many books bumped the Pacers to -14.

Those who, for whatever reason, believe New York might pull the upset here tonight could get +1050 on the moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

Knicks-Pacers: Match-Up
Indiana has won eight of its last 10 games, following its 94-74 victory at home over Philadelphia Sunday. The Pacers only led that game by seven points with seven minutes to go, but ended on a 13-0 run, and covered as 11-point favorites.

Indiana only shot 41 percent from the floor Sunday, but held Philly to 35 percent shooting.

Last Friday the Pacers beat Cleveland 93-86, holding the Cavs to 36 percent shooting, covering at -3.

As Indiana begins to get rolling it's now 11-4 ATS over its last 15 games.

At 25-34 the Pacers sit in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, but they're just a half-game behind eighth-place Brooklyn.

New York actually had won two games in a row, upsetting Detroit in overtime and Toronto, before getting blown out at home by Sacramento Tuesday 124-86. The Knicks trailed by 16 after one quarter, 26 at the half and by 44 midway through the fourth quarter, against a team that's 16 games under .500.

At 12-47 New York owns the worst record in the league, by one game “over” Minnesota.

 

Knicks-Pacers, Statistically Speaking
New York ranks 26th in the league in FG shooting at 43 percent, and 27th in FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent from the floor. Little wonder the Knicks are terrible.

Indiana ranks 23rd in shooting at 44 percent, but sixth in FG defense, holding foes to just under 44 percent.

Also, the Pacers rank sixth in rebounding at +2.6 per game, while New York ranks 28th on the boards at -3.1 per game.

 

Knicks-Pacers Recent History
This series sure ain't like the “Reggie vs. New York” rivalry that once was.

Indiana has taken six of the last eight meeting with the Knicks SU, going 6-2 ATS in the process, after winning the first meeting between the teams this season back in January 103-82, covering as an eight-point home favorite. The Pacers trailed that game by seven points after one quarter, but roared back, holding New York to just 53 points over the last three quarters, leading at one point by 34.

Indiana shot 53 percent from the floor that night, held New York to 42 percent and won the battle on the boards 54-39.

That game just sneaked UNDER its total of 187, as the teams combined for just 35 points in the fourth quarter.

These teams will also meet Saturday at MSG in NYC.

Today's NBA Picks of the Day include Knicks vs. Pacers. 

Knicks-Pacers Betting Trends
New York is 27-31 on the totals this season, as Knicks games have averaged 194 points.

Indiana is 32-26 on the totals, as Pacers games have averaged 193 points.

 

Injury Update
Indiana, of course, is still playing without G Paul George, although they hope to get him back sometime soon, perhaps for a playoff run.

New York, meanwhile, is playing without F Carmelo Anthony (24 PPG), who's sitting out the rest of this season because of a bad knee. And PG Jose Calderon has missed recent action with a strained Achilles, and he's also out for the foreseeable future. As if the Knicks didn't have enough problems.

 

NBA Betting Verdict
This spread might be inflated by a bucket or two, but from what we've seen from New York it shouldn't matter. We'll try not to over-think our NBA picks for this game and take the Pacers, minus the points.

Free NBA Pick: Indiana -13.5 at Pinnacle

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