Dirty Birds: Pelicans, Hawks Can Fly ‘Over’ Sunday’s Total

Saturday, March 9, 2019 6:44 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 9, 2019 6:44 PM UTC

It all depends on who suits up, but the New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks normally have what it takes to go ‘over’ the posted total on Sunday.

<p style="text-align:right;"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 8: 19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 24-10 Totals</em></p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>New Orleans (30-38 SU, 33-34-1 ATS) at Atlanta (22-44 SU, 31-35 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Sunday, 6:00 p.m. ET, NBA-TV</strong></p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/new-orleans-pelicans-vs-atlanta-hawks-3570063/odds/" target="_blank">Over</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Best Line Offered: Heritage</strong></p><p style="text-align:center;">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3570063, "sportsbooksIds":[169,999996,1096,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>When it rains, it pours. The New Orleans Pelicans had it bad enough Friday night against the visiting Toronto Raptors; Anthony Davis (plus-4.9 OBPM, plus-3.9 DBPM) and Jrue Holiday (plus-3.0 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM) were held out, Davis with back spasms and Holiday with an abdominal strain. Then both Jahlil Okafor (minus-1.1 OBPM, minus-0.6 DBPM) and Elfrid Payton (minus-1.4 OBPM, minus-0.2 DBPM) were injured mid-game. Final score: Toronto 127, New Orleans 104.<br /><br />It’s hard to tell who’s going to play for the Pelicans – or who’s truly injured, for that matter – when they visit the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. We won’t have any <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank">NBA odds</a> for this matchup until more is known, but we’re willing to throw out an early recommendation for the ‘over,’ based on the home/away splits. The ‘over’ is 20-16 this year when New Orleans hits the road, and 17-14 for the Hawks at home.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>New Orleans Is Sinking</strong></h2><p>The Pellies did say they wanted to give fewer minutes to both Davis and Holiday going forward. Putting them on the injured list is one way to do it; Davis is also <em>persona non grata</em> in the Big Easy after his agent demanded a trade, so there’s even more incentive for New Orleans to keep him off the floor at the Squishee King Center.<br /><br />Maybe Sunday will be different. Davis was expected to start against Toronto, so there’s a non-zero chance that his “back spasms” warrant those ironic quotation marks, and he’ll make the trip to Atlanta – especially after Okafor aggravated his ankle injury against the Raptors. Unfortunately for us, Holiday is supposed to be re-evaluated in a week or so, as is E’Twaun Moore (minus-0.1 OBPM, minus-1.9 DBPM). It’s not ideal, nor is the fact that Payton appears okay to play.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Hasty Pudding</strong></h2><p>It might be tempting to put the Hawks in our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank">NBA picks</a> against the spread, but it’s the Hawks – they’re 11-20 ATS at home this year, and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/tanks-ahoy-take-the-home-team-for-knicks-hawks/88783/" target="_blank">they’ve burned us</a> so, so hard already. Plus, they’ll be playing on zero days of rest after hosting the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday. Also not ideal, for the spread or the total.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;MVP Candidates FG% 3P%&lt;br /&gt;James Harden 43.9% 36.4%&lt;br /&gt;Paul George 44.6% 39.5%&lt;br /&gt;Damian Lillard 44.7% 36.4%&lt;br /&gt;Russ Westbrook 42.4% 27.4% &lt;br /&gt;Vince Carter 43.6% 40.9%&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;According to my calculations, Vince Carter is the MVP this year.&lt;/p&gt;— #FreeVC (@VinsanityGNG) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/VinsanityGNG/status/1103534560053088256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 7, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />This is one of those games where you’ll want to keep your bet small, whatever you choose. We can see a scenario where an ATS bet on New Orleans would make sense, depending on who’s going to suit up; they were 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS coming out of the All-Star break, until everything turned to dust against Toronto. But at a fundamental level, the ‘over’ has legs for Sunday’s matchup, with both teams struggling on defense and the Hawks operating at the fastest pace in the NBA. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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