Despite Paul's Status Go 'Over' With Grizzlies-Clippers NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Monday, November 9, 2015 4:19 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 9, 2015 4:19 PM GMT

One of the later games of the Monday NBA slate is the Grizzlies & Clippers playing from Staples Center. Even with the late NBA odds coming out, the Clippers are the favorites tonight.

Chris Paul’s status
Chris Paul missed the Clippers last game and is looking like he is more doubtful than probable for tonight’s game against Memphis. With that in mind, it does two things for the Clippers. First, it means the offense should run all through Blake Griffin in this one, and it hurts their defense on a guy like Mike Conley.

However, both of these factors can play into the value on this game, because although the Grizzlies have been known in the past for their defense, the Memphis defense has disappeared in the 2015-2016 season. So far throughout the young season, Memphis has been giving up nearly 102 points per game, and they have been giving up even more to good teams like LA. Los Angeles has always been better playing at home than on the road, and that is really true when it comes to their offense. So far on this young season, the Clippers are averaging 106 points per game when playing at home, and with the Memphis defense falling apart before our very eyes, the play tonight is on the total.

At 197 points, and with the uncertainty that the absence of Paul can bring to the spread in this one, if you’re set on wagering on this game, the total and over are where you need to put your money. Not only is Memphis giving up more points this season, but even in their past meetings from LA, the over has been a good play.

The over is 4-2 in the last six meetings from Staples Center between these two teams, and that was when the Memphis defense was actually credible. The sportsbooks are undervaluing how good LA is at home on the NBA odds, and how bad the Grizzlies have been in general this season. On top of all of that, you have the Clippers’ defense, which is normally close to not existing anyway, and without Paul, (who is their best defender outside of DeAndre Jordan) it will hurt their perimeter defense tonight. While I doubt the Grizzlies can get to 100 points tonight, I am positive the Clippers have 105-110 point upside.

 

The Sharp Pick
The over has cashed for the Clippers in 11 of their last 14 games dating back to last season, and the over is currently 4-2 for the Clippers on the season. On top of that, the over has cashed in two of the Clippers’ last three home games this season, and in eight of their last ten home games dating back to last season’s playoffs.

While Zach Randolph is still a credible NBA player, he will have no answer for the quickness and diversity that Griffin brings on offense tonight. Plus, Marc Gasol might struggle with Jordan tonight on the boards, and if Memphis can’t keep the Clippers off the offensive glass, the scoring in this one is just going to get higher. Los Angeles has enough depth to make up for the loss of Paul, and after giving up 109 to the Rockets at home a few nights ago without Paul, I feel confident enough in Memphis to put up 95-100 points in this one, making the over one of the better NBA picks of the evening.

NBA Pick: Over 198 at Pinnacle

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