Defending Champs Cavs To Cool Down The Heat

Kevin Stott

Friday, December 9, 2016 2:27 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 9, 2016 2:27 PM UTC

The Cavs have the talent and the homecourt advantage to handle the Heat at home. But besides that the trends are strong on Cleveland in this matchup. Our expert capper analyzes this game and provides his pick.


Odds Overview

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James and the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers (15-5, 8-11-1 ATS) welcome The King’s former team, the Miami Heat (7-15 SU,10-12 ATS) to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland on Friday night for the first of 3 meetings between these Eastern Conference rivals. NBA Odds see the Cavaliers 13-point favorites—up from an opening 11½ on quick Sharp play—with the Total at 210½ . The Money Line odds see Cleveland priced at -1,450 with Miami massive +850 underdogs.



Miami Heat Thumbnail Sketch, Team Trends

The thing to know here is Chris Bosh may be aiming to attempt his comeback next season instead of this one, so the Heat (750/1 to win NBA Championship, JustBet) team who takes on Cleveland here is a bit different looking than last season with LeBron buddy Dwyane Wade (Bulls) and Luol Deng (Lakers) gone and Bosh not even in the picture. Miami is 4-1 ATS L5 Road games, 13-5 ATS L18 Fridays and 10-3 ATS L13 vs. NBA Central but 1-4 ATS L5 against Eastern Conference.


The Under is 5-1 L6 Heat (L3) games vs. NBA Central, 4-1 both the L5 Fridays and Road dribbles and the Under is 11-4 L15 when an Opponent Has Scored 100+ Previous Game. Miami (3-9 vs. Eastern Conference) has actually played much better on the Road (5-7 SU) than at Home (2-8 SU) so far this NBA Regular Season.



Cleveland Cavaliers Thumbnail Sketch, Team Trends

The Cavaliers come in 9-2 SU at Home and on a modest 2-game Win Streak but the 111.1 ppg the defending NBA champs are averaging is the third-best mark in the league. So letting LeBron, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and JR Smith just pop-pop-pop seems to be working. Cleveland (12-4 vs. East) is 5-1-1 ATS L7 after a SU Win of 10+ points, 5-1 ATS L6 at Home against Team with Losing Record and 8-2 ATS L10 Fridays.



The Under is 11-4-1 ATS L16 Cavs games vs. Teams with Losing Record but the Over is 7-1 ATS L8 overall, 5-0 L5 against the East as well as L5 after SU Win and 4-0 L4 after ATS Win.



Series Trends, Final Thoughts, Game Picks

The Trends are strong in this NBA match up and they make sense in this spot, although the last 3 Cleveland games have gone Over. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS L4 against the Heat in Cleveland where they dance on volcanoes, the Home team is a 8-0 ATS the L8 in this series and the Under is a solid 10-4-1 ATS L15 here in Cleveland. With Goran Dragic and Miami evolving and forced to get in a shootout here, expect the Cavaliers to be on for the weekend crowd and roll to a 20+ point victory.




PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Cavaliers 114 Heat 91Free NBA Pick: Cavaliers -13 Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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