Bet Western Conference Home Teams
A trend being established out in the wild, wild Western Conference this season has been the sheer dominance of the home teams ATS. However, my first thought when I saw this was wrong, and yours might be too.
Even at this point in the season, Western Conference teams have probably played between three and six games at home against Eastern Conference teams. The bulk of their home schedules are conference games and the home team has dominated those conference matchups through 30-plus games.
So far there are zero Western Conference teams that are below .500 ATS at home against fellow conference opponents. The Rockets have the worst record of all 15 teams at 5-5-1.
You do have some teams that are generally good ATS at home regardless of opponent. The Mavs, Nuggets, Kings, Blazers, and Thunder are both above .500 ATS against either conference when playing at home.
However, combined, inner-conference home teams in the West have started the season 105-52 ATS (66.9 percent).
That is truly telling of a couple of things. The first may be that some of the Western Conference teams take a night off when a bad Eastern Conference team comes to town. Considering four of the five worst teams in the league are in the East, I suspect the home teams out West probably tend to play a little more relaxed, which hurts their chances of covering a potentially double-digit spread. San Antonio for instance is 1-3 ATS at home against East teams, but 11-3 ATS at home against Western Conference foes.
I think this trend also confirms precisely how good and tight the Western Conference is going to be this season. While there will be some teams that start to tank once the playoff picture becomes clearer, but as of writing this, only five games separate the 4th seed in the West and the second to last place in the entire conference standings. There could be 10 teams vying for the last three or four playoff spots in the West as we head into the latter parts of March.
Christmas Day Betting Preview
The Christmas Day slate should be full of value, but there are a trio of games that I’m going to have my eyes on when the NBA odds are released. The early game may have some under value, but the Bucks are going to wax the Knicks with ease. Similarly, the late game between the Jazz and Portland is going to be really tight and a coin flip for either team.
However, the Christmas meat of the schedule are the games to bet in my opinion. I suspect the Thunder might be a good road value even against an improving Rockets team. I’m hoping they are taking a few points and if that’s the case I could see them as a value.
The Boston and Sixers game could be the most physical of the bunch. With Al Horford probable to play on Sunday, he should be a nice check to Joel Embiid. The Sixers’ big man was only 9-for-21 in their first meeting on opening night.
Finally, the game that might end up as one of the highest rated games in NBA television history will cap off my Christmas targets. LeBron James and the Lakers head into Oracle Arena in a matchup with the Warriors. With the Lakers getting healthier, it should be a playoff-style battle with plenty of defense from both teams. This also could also to the under being the play considering the public interest could pump the total farther than it should be. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas, NBA fans!