After four straight NBA Picks cashing this week, this expert handicapper will try to keep his mini hot streak going for tonight’s big slate. Join him as he deciphers the odds for Mavs vs. Pistons & Bucks vs. Blazers.
Mavs vs. Pistons
The Pistons are trying desperately to pull themselves out of the hole they have dug in the East, but tonight with the Mavs coming to town, that will be easier said that done. Tonight’s NBA Odds have the Mavs as -6 ½ favorites on the road, but I am a bit more focused on the total, which has been steadily rising since it opened from 202 ½ to 204. Even at 204, the number seems ripe for an over bet this evening between one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and the Pistons, who have been better on defense.
Plus, even though the Pistons have struggled on offense this season, the Mavs are coming off the back-to-back last night as they took care of New York. That should at the very least leave them a bit tired, and force them to give up some points here tonight. The Mavs have started to slip some on defense, as they are giving up nearly 103 points per game. If the Pistons come to play, the 'over' will fly over.
The 'over' has cashed at 7-1 in the Pistons’ last eight games against a team with a winning SU record, while the over is 7-2 in the Mavs’ last nine overall games. The 'over' is also 4-1 in the Mavs’ last five road games, and the over is 7-2 in Dallas’ last nine games as a road favorite.
Free NBA Pick: OVER 204 at The Greek
Bucks vs. Blazers
Both of these teams are now dealing with major injury to one of their starters, and while it may not be a death sentence for either team, they both really hurt in their own respective way. Rookie of the year candidate, Jabari Parker tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season. For a Bucks team with playoff aspirations this season in the East, it doesn’t wreck their chances, but it does hurt them significantly.
The Blazers on the other hand will be without their starting center, Robin Lopez for the next few months. This may not seem like a major injury with Chris Kaman being able to slide into the starting five, however without Lopez, the Blazers lose a lot of defense. This should play big in tonight’s game as well, because even without Parker for the rest of the season, the Bucks’ have a deep and talented offensive lineup. Kris Middleton will slide into the starting lineup for the Bucks and they shouldn’t miss a beat.
That includes tonight, and I see the Bucks being able to cover this monster spread. At +9 ½ in the NBA Odds, with a total of 203, the Bucks have covered smaller spreads this season against better teams. At +9 ½, it’s almost a steal of a value to play the Bucks with your NBA picks tonight. The Blazers are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win, while the Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. Look for the Bucks to cover, even without their star rookie.
Free NBA Pick: Bucks +9 ½