Counterpoint: Game 6 Concerns Lead to 'Under' Play in Rockets-Warriors

Friday, May 25, 2018 3:51 PM UTC

Friday, May. 25, 2018 3:51 PM UTC

Houston and Golden State gave us our second straight outstanding down to the wire contest in Game 5. But it came with a price, as Chris Paul felt a "twinge" in his upper right hamstring.

<h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/houston-rockets-vs-golden-state-warriors-3468653/#matchup"><strong>Game 6: Rockets (39-56-2 O/U) at Warriors (44-52-1 O/U)</strong></a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: Under</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4418&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow">5Dimes</a></strong></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3468653, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,238,1096,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>For Houston Rockets fans, the euphoria of winning Game 5 quickly turned to the serious concern about Chris Paul and his availability for the rest of this series. And even if he can play, how much less than 100 percent will he be? <strong><em>(Update: Paul will miss Game 6)</em></strong></p><p>If you have ever have pulled a hamstring in the area that Paul did Thursday night, for normal people like myself and Swinging Johnson even the simple act of jogging goes from a normal activity to nothing more than almost a brisk walk. This is not easy, either, to take the pressure off the hamstring by moving "dead-legged" and not raising your knees. It is understood Paul is a much finer tuned athlete than myself (I will choose not to be critical of SJ on this because I don't really know), but what is expected of him is far greater than what I could comprehend.</p><p>The oddsmakers from sportsbooks have taken an aggressive and realistic stance and are presuming Paul does not play or is very limited in what he can do in Game 6 on Saturday night back in Oakland. The anticipated line would be Golden State at -7.5 or -8 and the total at 217 to 218. Instead, the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank" title="The SBR odds pages are best in the business. ">NBA odds</a> have the Warriors at -11 and the total at 213.5. Swinging Johnson and I agreed betting the side is a real challenge and instead will explore the total for<a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="Expert analysis on all free picks only at SBR. "> NBA picks</a>.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;“We know what we’re capable of....a sense of ‘you’ve been there before’ is always a good feeling. We know what it takes.” - &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Money23Green?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@Money23Green&lt;/a&gt; on the team’s confidence &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/wr49C3gnxu\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/wr49C3gnxu&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/warriors/status/999869931469582341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;May 25, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Keep the Unders Coming</strong></h2><p>One does not normally associate "blowouts" to totals, but that is exactly what it been in the last two contests in the West Finals. Game 4 was more than 40 points below the total and even an enormous eight-point correction was still not close enough as the UNDER was good by more than 27 points for Game 5.</p><p>At this time, we don't Paul's status for Game 6, but like the oddsmakers I'm going to speculate Paul does not play or has very limited minutes. This, in theory, should curtail Houston's offense unless they have a crazy game where everyone cannot miss three-pointers.</p><p>Golden State's offense has been a dumpster fire the last two games with just 186 total points. Houston's defense has gotten physical with the Warriors and they have responded with awful ball-handling (turnovers), poor judgment in shot selection and far too many "hero ball' shot attempts.</p><p>Steve Kerr's offense is predicated on finding the open man and passing the ball. The last two games, in particular, there has been far too much dribbling or the ball stopping and mediocre shots are heaved.</p><p>It's not a coincidence that Andre Iguodala, who led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio, has missed the last two games, which has contributed to the Warriors' woes. Nor is it that Kevin Durant had six assists in Golden State's Game 2 massacre and he's had a grand total of five in the other four games, three which were losses.</p><p>Going back to Game 3 of the 2016 Ppayoffs, these teams are 11-4 UNDER when meeting. Golden State is on a 7-1 UNDER run and Houston is 6-2 UNDER in their past eight outings. If you play the averages, the losing team in this series has averaged 96.4 PPG, and if that remains true it would suggest the winner could score up to 117 points and we would still have an UNDER.</p><p>I'll take the lower score and continue to spank Swinging Johnson like a rented mule.</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/point-expect-scoring-in-buckets-in-game-6-at-golden-state/85369">Speaking Of Mules, Is Doug Being An Ass For Not Going 'Over' In Game 6?</a></h2>
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