Comfortably Back Home Favorite Rockets -7 With Your NBA Picks Over Mavericks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 2:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2015 2:11 PM UTC

Dallas visits Houston for Game 5 of their Round 1 playoff series. How close are the Mavs to being eliminated? Will that be the case tonight? Find out here as our expert handicapper shares his NBA Pick.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets (-7) 8:05 ET TNT TV
Dallas visits Houston for Game 5 of their Round 1, (7) game series. Houston leads the series, 3 games to 1 and are listed as favorites on the NBA odds. Tonight, the Mavericks look to avoid elimination once again, as they did in their 121-109 Game 4, home court victory on Sunday night. No team has ever won an NBA series after trailing 3 games to none. Look for the Rockets to put the Mavs out of their agony tonight.

In that Game 4 victory on their home court, the Mavs took advantage of a Houston team who became complacent after opening up a double digit 2nd quarter lead on their way to what they perceived to be a 4-0 sweep.  But, the Mavs responded by shooting 54% from the field and owning the glass with a 52-38 rebound margin. The Dallas guard play was phenomenal with Ellis scoring 31 and J.J. Barea (the 3rd string point guard) scoring 17 points and dishing out 13 assists. Rondo who?  Meanwhile, Houston went ice cold from the arc, making just 7 of 31 (3) pointers and they were horrendous from the stripe, converting just 26 of 40 foul shots for 65%.  

Look for a huge bounce back by the Rockets tonight on their home floor. The first 2 games of the series were easier than the final score looked. The Rockets defeated Dallas (118-108) and (111-99) in games where the final score could have been much worse.  With Dwight Howard playing his best basketball in recent seasons, he teams with Harden to form arguably the best lead guard/center tandem in the NBA.  Aided by the perimeter scoring of Brewer and Smith, who combined for 45 points last game, expect Houston to author an offensive explosion against the Mavericks tonight.

It is a near 70% winning ATS proposition on over 100 events that superior NBA playoff home teams will cover the spread against the greater than .570 road opponent, who has just defeated them by 10 or more points.  We comfortably take the Houston Rockets with our NBA picks against a Dallas team who is an uncharacteristic 6-15 ATS as road dog this season, including 0-7 ATS when taking 4 or more points.

NBA Picks: Take Houston Rockets

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