Clippers vs. Kings NBA Picks: Can L.A. Take Advantage of Depleted Opponent?

Last Updated: December 22, 2021 7:17 AM EST • 4 minute read X Social Google News Link

Despite virus-related cancellations throughout the NBA, the matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings is still going ahead Wednesday night. We break down the Pacific Division battle in our Clippers-Kings picks.
The Kings (13-19) have been battling a COVID-19 situation in their locker room over the past week, as seven players and interim coach Alvin Gentry have filtered into the NBA's health and safety protocols. The Kings managed to overcome their shorthanded reality in a win over the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, but have otherwise been listless on the court during a tumultuous week.
The Clippers (16-15) aren't dealing with COVID issues to the extent that the Kings are, but they're struggling all the same over the past week, dropping three straight contests, including most recently to the Spurs by a 24-point margin on Monday.
Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Clippers and the Kings (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five-star scale).
Clippers vs. Kings Game Info
Date/Time: Wednesday, Dec. 22, 10 p.m. ETTV: NBA TVLocation: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Clippers vs. Kings Odds Analysis
After opening at Clippers -6, the line has bounced between that same mark and -5.5. At present, DraftKings has the Clippers favored by 5.5 points. Neither the Kings nor the Clippers have been effective against the spread in the current campaign, going 14-18 and 13-18 respectively on the season.
The total has dropped a point since it opened, from 220 to 219. Games involving the Clippers have gone 18-13 to the Under this season. The totals on Sacramento's games have seen a completely even split through 32 games, with 16 going Under and 16 hitting the Over.
Clippers vs. Kings Picks
Kings +5.5 (-105) ???Under 219 (-110) ????
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Clippers vs. Kings Predictions
Kings +5.5 (-110)
On the surface, it should seem that the Kings should be at a massive disadvantage for this game. Already a team that doesn't consistently cover spreads, Sacramento will be without seven players - De'Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, Marvin Bagley lll, Alex Len, Davion Mitchell, Louis King, and Neemias Queta - as well as Gentry, due to COVID protocols. Rishaun Holmes is also questionable due to an eye injury.
But with Fox out due to the protocols, Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton have the capabilities to form one of the most underrated guard duos in the NBA. They lit up the Spurs for a combined 56 points on Sunday in a showing that proved these high-octane Kings can still reach back for an impressive offensive performance despite a number of key players missing.
The Clippers won't be nearly as impacted by injuries as their opponents; Isaiah Hartenstein and Jason Preston are still out with injuries, while Marcus Morris Sr. finds himself in the COVID protocols. That vast difference in personnel problems is the primary factor under consideration with this line that handily favors the road team.
It’s interesting, though, that with both teams mostly at full strength in two previous meetings between the Kings and Clippers earlier this month, Sacramento won both sides of a home-and-home outright. Though the Clippers' stout defense keeps L.A. in the mix for a playoff spot, it hasn't been as successful at containing the Kings this season.
Despite the numerous absences for the Kings, this feels like too many points to give me for a home team with the more productive offense.
Under 219 (-110)
The total was smashed to bits when these two teams met on Dec. 1, as the Kings clipped Los Angeles 124-115. Three days later, the Clippers had the pleasure of dictating the pace in a lower-scoring game; they still lost 104-99 in a game that didn't sniff the total of 219.
Sacramento's 110.8 points per game ranks sixth in the NBA. Sure, part of the reason behind their gaudy offensive totals is the reality that their defense is virtually non-existent - the Kings have the NBA's second-worst scoring defense, giving up 114.3 points per outing. But the Clippers aren't an offense designed to take full advantage of that deficiency.
Los Angeles ranks 25th in the NBA in scoring (105.5 points per game) and finds itself in more than its share of low-scoring affairs due to the strength of its eighth-ranked scoring defense. A total that opened at 220 has to grapple with the fact that Los Angeles wants to slow things down and win on the defensive end, while the Kings want to run-and-gun for a full 48 minutes, efficiency be damned.
With defense presenting as such a strength for the Clippers, and the Kings inevitably less than their best selves due to COVID, the Clippers should have success in keeping Sacramento's efficiency down on the offensive end.
It won't happen to the extent necessary for Los Angeles' uninspiring offense to cover the point spread, but this game should be just ugly enough for the Clippers to get their first win over the Kings this season in a race to 105 points.
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Clippers-Kings picks made 12/22/2021 at 12:07 p.m. ET

Brenden Schaeffer X social