Clippers As Underdogs Offer Excellent NBA Pick Value vs. Thunder

Charles Stark

Thursday, March 31, 2016 2:16 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 31, 2016 2:16 PM UTC

The Clippers are coming off a back to back, NBA odds have made the Thunder a strong home fav against them. This seems like a good spot to take OKC, but are they laying too many points?

NBA odds makers have OKC at a -8.5 like at Pinnacle +102. For one of my NBA picks I am going to grab the points with a good Los Angeles team despite the fact they are coming off a back to back. Last time at OKC they lost by 12 but I anticipate they will keep it a bit closer tonight.


Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers come in averaging 104.5 points per game and average 51.2% on their two point shooting which ranks sixth in the NBA. They have cooled off quite a bit from a real hot six week run but this is a good basketball team that matches up decently well with the Thunder. Along with their solid interior scoring they shoot 36% from beyond the arc which ranks seventh in the league and they also rank fifth in effective field goal percentage. 

What I believe tonight will be the key with them hanging within the number is that they are one of the better teams in the league in protecting the basketball, Los Angeles ranks third and fourth in the NBA this season in turnovers per game and turnovers per play respectively. Defensively if they can control tempo they should make things less than easy for the Thunder as the Clippers rank fourth in opponent shooting percentage and sixth in opponent field goals made per game. OKC will want to get the pace going but Los Angeles has been good at limiting this aspect and should be able to get enough stops to keep this game reasonably close.


Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder average 110 points per game which ranks second in the league but they rank 26th and 24th in overall turnovers and turnovers per play respectively. Those turnovers could be a point of contention tonight and as mentioned I expect the Clippers to do everything they can to win this particular battle. The Thunder are so good across the board offensively and on the glass they average 56.7 rebounds per game which ranks first in the NBA. 

However, the Clippers match up with them well in most other areas defensively where OKC does a lot of damage especially in the interior or shots around the perimeter. Defensively OKC is good percentage wise and rank just outside the top five in the league in most defensive percentages. They do allow a ton of pace and rank in the middle of the league in opponent field goals made per game. That plays more into their style that Donovan likes to implement and that is really fast tempo. They are extremely good but they are laying just a bit too much in my opinion tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: Clippers +16
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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