Chill Out and Take Obvious Pick in Wolves-Magic Game

New Wolves

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, January 16, 2018 5:26 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2018 5:26 PM UTC

The Timberwolves are one of the league's hotter teams, and the Magic are among the coldest. Bettors shouldn't overlook the total when making Tuesday's NBA picks.

Tuesday NBA: Timberwolves vs. Magic

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Free NBA Pick: Over 217Best Line Offered: Bovada

Monday night we successfully cashed both under spots to move our season-long win percentage to nearly 53 percent. For Tuesday’s short slate we have to be a bit more cautious picking games against the spread, but the total for this Timberwolves-Magic game looks too good to pass up on the over posted on the NBA odds board.

The Wolves’ defense has been getting better every game, whereas the Magic's defense has been one of the NBA's worst. Orlando is allowing 109 points per game at home, 111.1 overall, and they have given up 119.2 points per game over their last five.

The Wolves have scored an average of 117 points per game over their last five, and they rank behind only Golden State and Houston in offensive efficiency. Also, since Dec. 18, the Wolves lead the league by scoring 114.3 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Stats.

To put it bluntly, the Wolves don’t need to waste their time playing defense to win this game. Defense takes a lot more effort than offense, and with the way Orlando is struggling, the Wolves are going to easily put up 120-plus points.

Plus, this is a trap game for the Wolves, which is why I’m off them ATS with my NBA picks. They have a big matchup looming Thursday on national TV in Houston, and they could overlook Orlando some, which could also lead to their defense giving up some points. Either way, I think the Wolves’ offense and the Magic’s lack of defense are enough to cash the over, so all that is just a bonus potentially for this one.

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