Celtics vs. Raptors NBA Picks: Can Red-Hot Boston Overcome Key Absences?
The Boston Celtics are one of the hottest teams in basketball at the moment, but they enter Monday with multiple things working against them. Check out our Celtics-Raptors picks.
The Celtics' season was at an all-time high before news that Robert Williams suffered a torn meniscus on Sunday night. Boston has won six straight and owns just three losses in its last 25 games. It’s also covered the spread in five of the last six. Williams' injury, though, casts a dark cloud over the team as it continues to fight for playoff positioning.
Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors have been picking up some steam, as well, winning eight of 10 and covering in all eight victories. The Raptors enter this contest following more days off than Boston has had. When entering with more rest than their opponents, the Raptors are 12-7 against the spread this year.
Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s NBA matchup between the Celtics and Raptors (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Celtics vs. Raptors Game Info
Date: Monday, March 28, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: NBA League PassLocation: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Celtics vs. Raptors Odds Analysis
The Celtics were 3-point favorites when this line opened, but the Williams injury has really sent this line flying in the other direction. Most books moved Toronto to -4.5, while FanDuel is at five points. Once -127 on the Moneyline, the Celtics are now as high as +225.
The total has gone from 220.5 points to as low as 210.5.
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Celtics vs. Raptors Picks
Raptors -5 (-110) ?????Under 211 (-110) ????Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-140) ????
Celtics vs. Raptors Predictions
Raptors -5 (-110)
In addition to the Williams injury, the Celtics announced that Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford will also miss Monday's game. Considering the Celtics are playing the second game of a back-to-back and will be without a handful of their stars, I'd be willing to bet the Raptors up to -7. If the line moves to -7.5 or beyond, there may be some value on Boston as the underdog.
Toronto is an aforementioned 12-7 ATS with the rest advantage and 15-13 ATS as the home favorite. It ranks ninth on the defensive end since the All-Star break. At this number, this is an easy bet to make,
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Under 211 (-110)
Though the spread continues to move dramatically, the total is where to look if you want to fade the Celtics but aren’t willing to lay close to double digits. It's dropped nearly 10 points, but I’m still going to take the Under.
Boston is a bore offensively without Brown and Tatum. Without those two, Horford, and Williams, it's likely a bottom-five offensive team. However, the Celtics will still have Marcus Smart and a good group of pesky wings, who will help sustain what's been a top-10 defense since the All-Star break. Boston is around only three points worse per 100 possessions with Williams off the court this year.
Meanwhile, the Raptors' defense ranks inside the top 10 since the break, and the team ranks 26th in pace during that time. This should be a rock fight.
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Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-140)
Boston ranked 12th in rebounding since the All-Star break with a healthy Williams. However, I have little faith it'll compete on the glass against a top-five rebounding unit like Toronto's.
Barnes should be down low for most of the game and may even see an additional few minutes with Gary Trent Jr. nursing an injury. Barnes has recorded exactly six rebounds in four straight games, and he's gone Over 7.5 eight times in the second half of the season.
Where to Bet on Celtics-Raptors Picks
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Celtics-Raptors picks made 3/28/2022 at 1:49 p.m. ET.