Celtics-Heat & Pistons-Clippers Provide Two Sharp NBA Picks of the Day

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Jordan Sharp

Saturday, October 28, 2017 7:35 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 28, 2017 7:35 PM GMT

Despite losing their main free agent in the first game of the season, the Celtics have continued to plug along, and tonight the NBA Odds have them as -1 ½ favorites on the road in Miami.

Celtics vs. Heat

This line is a bit surprising to me. Hassan Whiteside has already been ruled out for the Heat, and without him, the Heat loses their main advantage they and most teams have over the Celtics: rebounding.

The Celtics are not a great rebounding team, and interior defense is definitely not their strong suit. Without Whiteside, the Heat have come out as underdogs at home, a spot they gave gone 13-11 ATS in since 2015.

The biggest reason for the C’s being road favorites in this one other than the loss of Whiteside is the Boston defense. While they haven’t been great rebounding or on the interior, their overall defensive rating of 97.5 points allowed per 100 possessions ranks second-best in the league right now. It’s still early, so I doubt that continues to that extent, but from the two to three Celtics games I’ve watched, their wing defense has been outstanding.

The real question on defense comes down to the point guard battle between Kyrie Irving and Goran Dragic. The guard that plays better is likely going to be the team that comes out on top. Both guards have had some nice success against the other and if it’s a push between those two, that makes the Heat a better option ATS.

However, in the end, I think the spread is one to lay off, simply because the total looks like such a good over value. Believe it or not, both of these teams are playing at paces that rank in the top half of the league, and without Whiteside to run pick and roll, the Heat will need to run out more against this solid Boston half court defense.

If the Celtics are also playing fast, the total of 205 is a bit too low for this game. In four meetings last season, the over was 3-1 between these two teams, and I see a game where both are well into the 100s.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 205 at BetOnline

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The Pistons had kind of lost and beaten who they were supposed to Wednesday when they blew out the Wolves, and now they are +8 underdogs in Los Angeles against the Clippers tonight. Can we expect the Pistons to exceed expectations again tonight?

Pistons vs. Clippers

The Clippers are 4-0 SU and ATS to start the season and now they welcome in Detroit coming off their biggest win of the season. Without Chris Paul, the Clippers have been severely undervalued to open the season, and after the NBA Odds for this one opened at -6, it’s been moved up all the way to -8.

If there has been one constant to the Clippers’ success, it’s been their defense. The interior duo of DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin are going to give Andre Drummond and Tobias Harris fits tonight, while the Clippers’ guards are also deep and solid on defense. Even without Milos Teodosic, the Clippers are strong enough to completely shut down the Pistons’ offense.

However, the Pistons also need some credit for their nice start defensively. They rank 13th-best in defensive rating, allowing 104.5 points per 100 possessions, and they rank 5th-best in their opponent’s turnover rate.

On top of the strong defenses, both teams are playing at paces of 97.6 possessions per game, so if the defense holds tonight and shots aren’t falling, the total of 206 ½ is way too high, so take the under for your NBA picks tonight.

Free NBA Pick: UNDER 208 at BetDSI

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