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MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 17: Robert Williams III #44 of the Boston Celtics dunks against the Miami Heat in Game One of the 2022 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals at FTX Arena on May 17, 2022 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Michael Reaves / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Boston Celtics look to level their series with the Miami Heat and steal away home court advantage. We break down Game 2 with our top Celtics-Heat NBA picks.

Without guard Marcus Smart and forward Al Horford, the Celtics struggled on the road in Game 1. After taking the lead into the second half, Boston was flat in the third quarter and found itself in too big of a hole to climb out of.

The Celtics will see Smart return in Game 2, and look to have a real chance to level the series and steal away home-court advantage from the Heat.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s NBA Playoffs Game 2 matchup between the Celtics and Heat (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, May 19, 8:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

Celtics vs. Heat Odds Analysis

The Celtics opened as 4-point underdogs before Smart’s status for Game 2 became more clear. They now sit at +2.5 across the board with three points still hanging out there at DraftKings. PointsBet is reporting 69% of the tickets and 84% of the handle on Boston.

The total hasn’t moved too much. It was initially offered at 206 and has climbed as high as 207 at FanDuel. The best place to bet the Over would be PointsBet and BetMGM, who are both offering -110 odds on the Over 206.5.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1527299289596059648

Celtics vs. Heat Picks

Celtics ML (+110 via DraftKings) ?????Under 207 (-110 via FanDuel) ????Robert Williams to have more rebounds than Bam Adebayo (-140 via DraftKings) ?????

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Celtics vs. Heat Predictions

Celtics (+110)

The Celtics lost Game 1 by a 118-107 count, but they won three out of the four quarters of basketball played. If not for a historically-bad third quarter that saw Miami start on an 18-2 run and win the quarter 39-14, the Celtics easily would have won that game.

Heat guard Jimmy Butler had 41 points, which is a testament to just how good Smart is on defense. Sure, Butler has been scoring in bunches in the playoffs, but when Payton Pritchard is out there at the 3-point arc, you’re going to find ways to switch him on to Butler. That’s what Miami was able to do, and with the Celtics starting point guard back in the lineup the Heat will no longer have a clear weakness to exploit on the floor.

The Celtics were able to get tremendous contributions from guard Jaylen Brown and center Robert Williams which bodes well for them in Game 2. Miami really has no way of stopping that duo, or forward Jayson Tatum for that matter, and as long as the Celtics can show some energy on defense they should win this series in due time.

Williams, specifically, is a critical piece and getting him back into the lineup for this series has and will work wonders. Heat center Bam Adebayo was limited to just 10 points and four rebounds in Game 1, and without much help from one of the best bigs in the game, Miami will lose.

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Under 207 (-110)

I’m still willing to call this one a low-scoring game. The pace rating between the two was 98 last game, and the Celtics really didn’t dominate too much on offense with a 110.1 offensive rating. With Smart back in the mix, the Celtics’ defensive rating should come right back down to Earth from the mark of 121.9 it posted in Game 1.

Another interesting angle on Thursday is that with Smart on the court, the Celtics took 10 more shots per game inside of five feet this season. Without him, they attempted just 10 per game. Boston relies on paint scoring with Smart running the offense, and while it will likely knock down a good deal of threes, it’s important to note it will probably focus on the drive.

Williams to have more rebounds than Adebayo (-140)

This is a fun way to back Williams to continue dominating Adebayo down low. He grabbed nine rebounds in Game 1 to Adebayo’s four, and for the season the Celtics had a significant 54% rebounding rate with Williams in the game. In the playoffs, that number has dipped slightly to around 52%, but it’s important to note that’s 4% greater than the rebounding rate without Williams.

The Time Lord is an impact player, and going up against him has been a nightmare for opposing centers. Adebayo’s rebounding rate was just 6.1% with Williams on the floor in Game 1 — 6.1%! — and when they met during the regular season it was still down at 6.9% when they were on the floor together. Adebayo also had just an 87.8 offensive rating with Williams on the floor during their regular season battles.

Where to Bet on Celtics-Heat Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Celtics-Heat picks made on 5/19/2022 at 3:07 p.m. ET.