Celtics vs. Heat Game 1 NBA Picks: Series Tips off in South Beach

Henry John

Last Updated: May 17, 2022 7:22 AM EDT • 4 min 8 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 30: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat is run into by Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during the second quarter at TD Garden on March 30, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) (Photo by Winslow Townson / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Although the Boston Celtics are priced as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals, the situational spot heavily favors the Mami Heat at home in Tuesday’s series opener. Find out the angles we like with our Celtics-Heat picks.

The road through the playoffs to this point has been far from easy for the Celtics (8-3 against the spread, 4-7 Over/Under). Sure, Boston managed to sweep the Brooklyn Nets in four games in Round 2. However, that series was a whole lot closer statistically than the final 4-0 margin would have suggested. In the conference semifinals, Boston’s depth and prowess on the defensive end as a team proved to be too much. Facing a 3-2 series deficit, the C’s won both Game 6 and 7 by double-digits to advance.

On the flip side, the row that the Heat (7-4 ATS, 2-9 O/U) have had to hoe in these NBA Playoffs has been considerably less daunting. Miami started out by dispatching the Atlanta Hawks in five games. The lone loss of that Round 1 series for the Heat came by a single point. In Round 2, the Heat benefited from the Philadelphia 76ers being without MVP finalist Joel Embiid to begin the series and closed out in six games to advance. Despite being the top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Heat continue to be widely overlooked.

Here are my picks and predictions for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat (odds via BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, May 17, 8:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

Celtics vs. Heat Odds Analysis

Despite the fact that the Celtics are favored to win the Eastern Conference, the Heat have been established as the favorites for Game 1. However, it is worth noting that the NBA betting market has played Game 1 in a manner that supports the outright series price.

Oddsmakers initially tabbed the Heat as a 4-point favorite for Tuesday’s Game 1 in Miami. Since then, bettors have gotten behind the Celtics and driven the point spread down by two points across all major sportsbooks. At the time of writing, the Heat are a 2-point favorite on the consensus spread. However, multiple books have already lowered the line to Miami -1.5.

The ticket counts ahead of Game 1 are also interesting to note. First and foremost, the 2-point line move on Boston actually runs contradictory to the fact that 64% of public ATS bets are on the Heat. However, the Celtics have taken the majority of moneyline wagers to win Game 1 outright.

The total for Tuesday’s series-opener has also experienced a significant line move after opening at 207.5. The current NBA betting market consensus lists the O/U at 204. A handful of shops have dropped it even further to 203.5.

Celtics vs. Heat Picks

Heat -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ????Over 203.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ??Gabe Vincent Over 2.5 Assists (-150 via Caesars) ????

Celtics vs. Heat Predictions

Heat -1.5 (-115)

It’s hard to disagree with the outright series odds that favor the Celtics. On paper, Boston has more quality depth and proven talent than the Heat. But if there is a game in this series that Miami really NEEDS to win to assert itself, it would be Tuesday’s opener.

The spot for Boston tonight is downright awful. The Celtics are coming off of a hard-fought, physical, and grueling seven-game series against the defending champs. That series ended just over 48 hours before the scheduled tip of Tuesday’s Game 1. Not only that, but the Celtics had to travel to South Beach in between.

Needless to say, the Heat will have a significant rest advantage. After all, they closed out Philadelphia last Thursday. Combine that rest advantage with the home court advantage and the situation favors the Heat in a landslide.

Miami will be without veteran point guard Kyle Lowry for Game 1. Based on how the team played without him last round, it’s hard to argue that his absence is all that significant. They still have Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who are surrounded by one of the deepest and most unheralded supporting casts in the sport. Victor Oladipo will likely be an x-factor not just in Game 1 but throughout the series.

Over 203.5 (-105)

This series features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season long. The Celtics have actually played historically great defense since the midway point of the regular season. For the Heat, stingy defense has been their main calling card dating.

When it comes to efficiency rankings, the Celtics are third in the playoffs allowing an average of 105.7 points per 100 possessions. Miami is second in defensive efficiency rating (104.6). Needless to say, betting the Over is a bit of a contrarian maneuver.

But in any NBA Playoffs series, there is always a bit of a feeling-out process that must transpire early on. As such, Game 1 is the most likely to exceed the total than any successive matchup.

The other noteworthy stat to consider is how well the Heat role players have performed offensively at home in these playoffs. Knowing that there will be an element of fatigue impacting the Celtics, Miami is likely to create and capitalize on some looks that may not be there as the series progresses.

Gabe Vincent Over 2.5 Assists (-150 via Caesars)

With Lowry out, bettors have plenty of reason to pursue playing over 2.5 assists for Gabe Vincent, the man who will start in his place.

Vincent has largely been able to eclipse this NBA props total in these playoffs with or without Lowry in the lineup. However, when Lowry has not been available, Vincent has finished with less than three assists just once in the playoffs to date.

Most recently, Vincent dished out six helpers in the Heat’s Game 6 closeout win. Considering how he has regularly cleared the prop total throughout the postseason, it’s no surprise that the odds are juiced to the Over.

It’s also worth noting that Vincent averaged 3.1 assists per game over the course of the full season. Thus, the betting line of 2.5 is also a buy-low opportunity relative to his standard rate of production. With Lowry out, Vincent will see no less than 25 minutes of action in Game 1. Look to the former UC Santa Barbara standout to go Over this low assist total.

Where to Bet on Celtics-Heat Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Celtics-Heat picks made on 5/17/2022 at 11:57 a.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.